# Finite Certificates for In-Context Determinacy and a Threshold Theory of Emergence in Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07623 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.07623/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.02311/) (2022)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [Fantastically Ordered Prompts and Where to Find Them: Overcoming Few-Shot Prompt Order Sensitivity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08786/) (2021)
- [In-context Learning and Induction Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.11895/) (2022)
- [An Explanation of In-context Learning as Implicit Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.02080/) (2021)
- [Transformers learn in-context by gradient descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.07677/) (2022)
- [What Can Transformers Learn In-Context? A Case Study of Simple Function Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01066/) (2022)
- [What learning algorithm is in-context learning? Investigations with linear models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15661/) (2022)
- [Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.15004/) (2023)
- [Transformers learn to implement preconditioned gradient descent for in-context learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.00297/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper develops a model-theoretic framework for verifying context-conditioned language-model behavior by replacing benchmark labels with finite semantic certificates. The first problem is finite determinacy: when do examples in a context force the answer to a query without changing model parameters? In finite-field linear task families, we prove an exact row-space criterion, compute the residual hypothesis count, derive full and query-local identification curves, and show that extracting a smallest forcing subcontext is NP-complete even for binary outputs. The second problem is threshold emergence: when does an apparent benchmark jump reflect a semantic transition rather than a discontinuity of the scoring map? We prove an anti-mirage theorem separating thresholded metrics from semantic confidence and give a rate-sensitive crossing bound for latent commitments becoming visible above threshold. The common semantic object is a confidence functional on definable events. We show that it is a Boolean probability measure, equivalently a Keisler measure on the relevant type space, whose measure-one formulas form a proper filter and whose Stone-space representation is invariant under definitional expansion. The resulting calculus provides finite context certificates, pair-separator hitting sets, query teaching dimension, prompt-preservation criteria, and scale-limit witnesses. Exact-arithmetic ancillary scripts reproduce the finite-field and threshold calculations and generate the data used by the figures.