# Trio: Learning Time-Series Forecasting with Temporal-Spatial-Sample Attention and Structural Causal Priors

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07291 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.07291/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01848/) (2022)
- [TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23719/) (2025)
- [TimeFilter: Patch-Specific Spatial-Temporal Graph Filtration for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13041/) (2025)
- [From Tables to Time: Extending TabPFN-v2 to Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.02945/) (2025)
- [Retrieval Augmented Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.08249/) (2024)
- [In-context Time Series Predictor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14982/) (2024)
- [KAN-AD: Time Series Anomaly Detection with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.00278/) (2024)
- [TabPFN-3: Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.13986/) (2026)
- [CausalDynamics: A large-scale benchmark for structural discovery of dynamical causal models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.16620/) (2025)
- [Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Global Temporal Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10847/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Multivariate time-series forecasting requires models to reason over temporal dynamics, cross-variable dependencies, and historical input-output correspondences. Recent Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) suggest that synthetic tasks can be useful for learning transferable inference behavior. However, directly transferring this paradigm to time-series forecasting remains difficult, since temporal order, dynamic lags, and recurring historical patterns are not naturally captured by ordinary tabular priors. Motivated by this observation, we propose Trio, a sample-aware time-series forecasting architecture based on Temporal-Spatial-Sample attention. Temporal attention captures within-window dynamics, spatial attention models inter-variable dependencies, and sample attention retrieves relevant historical lookback-future pairs to guide the current prediction. Rather than claiming a fully general PFN-style forecaster, our goal is to study how historical input-output examples can be explicitly organized and reused within a forecasting model. We further introduce a Time-Series Structural Causal Model (TS-SCM) generator to create structured synthetic forecasting tasks with dynamic lags, cross-variable interactions, noise, feedback, and distributional drift. Experiments on synthetic, industrial, and public benchmarks show that the proposed architecture improves forecasting performance. Exploratory zero-shot experiments further suggest that TS-SCM-generated tasks may provide useful structural priors, while fully general PFN-style time-series forecasting remains an open problem.