# Beyond Post-hoc Explanation: Toward Glassbox AI via Probabilistic Mediation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07113 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.07113/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [Explanation in Artificial Intelligence: Insights from the Social Sciences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.07269/) (2017)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Ethical and social risks of harm from Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.04359/) (2021)
- [The Mythos of Model Interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.03490/) (2016)
- [Closing the AI Accountability Gap: Defining an End-to-End Framework for Internal Algorithmic Auditing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.00973/) (2020)
- [Principles alone cannot guarantee ethical AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.06668/) (2019)
- [Outlining Traceability: A Principle for Operationalizing Accountability in Computing Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.09385/) (2021)
- [Global Sensitivity Analysis of Uncertain Parameters in Bayesian Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.05764/) (2024)
- [Will AI Take My Job? Evolving Perceptions of Automation and Labor Risk in Latin America](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.08841/) (2025)
- [Understanding support for AI regulation: A Bayesian network perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.05866/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models are rapidly becoming infrastructural components in high-stakes institutional settings, including public administration, legal reasoning, and healthcare, where opacity is not merely inconvenient but institutionally and legally untenable. Existing approaches to explainability are predominantly post-hoc, offering unstable, non-contestable accounts that have no formal relationship to the reasoning process that produced the output. We argue that the problem is not the absence of explanation but the absence of structured reasoning in the first place. This paper makes the case for a fundamentally different architecture, which we call the Glassbox Framework, in which Bayesian networks serve as transparent, ante-hoc mediation layers for generative models. Bayesian networks encode domain knowledge, causal assumptions, and probabilistic dependencies before inference occurs, enabling auditable reasoning traces, uncertainty quantification, and contestable outputs. We characterise the architecture of this framework and ground it in a benefit eligibility scenario, identifying the foundational challenges spanning semantic alignment, dynamic model construction, probabilistic grounding, and human governance that must be solved to realise it at scale. By shifting from post-hoc explanation to ante-hoc probabilistic mediation, this work outlines a principled path toward AI systems that are not only powerful but fundamentally accountable.