# Architecture-Adaptive Uncertainty Fusion for Deepfake Detection

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06666 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.06666/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 34 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Training data-efficient image transformers & distillation through attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.12877/) (2020)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Xception: Deep Learning with Depthwise Separable Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02357/) (2016)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [EfficientNetV2: Smaller Models and Faster Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00298/) (2021)
- [FaceForensics++: Learning to Detect Manipulated Facial Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.08971/) (2019)
- [CNN-generated images are surprisingly easy to spot... for now](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.11035/) (2019)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [Celeb-DF: A Large-scale Challenging Dataset for DeepFake Forensics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12962/) (2019)
- [Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05424/) (2015)
- [Thinking in Frequency: Face Forgery Detection by Mining Frequency-aware Clues](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.09355/) (2020)
- [MaxViT: Multi-Axis Vision Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01697/) (2022)
- [MesoNet: a Compact Facial Video Forgery Detection Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.00888/) (2018)
- [Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02544/) (2020)
- [Calibrating Deep Neural Networks using Focal Loss](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09437/) (2020)
- [Deep Evidential Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.02600/) (2019)
- [Combining EfficientNet and Vision Transformers for Video Deepfake Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.02612/) (2021)
- [Deepfake Video Detection Using Convolutional Vision Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11126/) (2021)
- [Deepfake-Eval-2024: A Multi-Modal In-the-Wild Benchmark of Deepfakes Circulated in 2024](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02857/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deepfake detection systems achieve near-perfect accuracy on benchmarks, yet forensic deployment demands reliable prediction uncertainty. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods rely on single sources and ignore that optimal uncertainty composition varies across architectures. We propose Correlation-Optimized Fusion (COF), an architecture-adaptive framework that fuses five complementary uncertainty sources -- epistemic, aleatoric, calibration, conformal, and distributional -- by maximizing Pearson correlation between fused uncertainty scores and prediction errors via constrained optimization on the probability simplex. COF requires no model modifications and only 42 s of weight optimization, compared to 20--45 h for a 5-model Deep Ensemble. Evaluation across eleven architectures on FaceForensics++ reveals a fundamental trade-off: under matched train/evaluation protocol, non-linear methods achieve approximately 5--6% higher in-domain correlation than COF (mean r = 0.438), but this reverses under distribution shift. On CelebDF, COF outperforms Random Forest in 9/11 architectures with up to 7.3x higher correlation (MaxViT-B: r = 0.249 vs. 0.034); RF degrades 85% cross-domain to r = 0.071, whereas COF retains substantially more signal (74% drop to r = 0.116). Cross-dataset evaluation on CelebDF and DFDC reveals catastrophic generalization failure across all methods: in-domain correlations of 0.41--0.47 collapse to near-zero externally (mean degradation 90.7%), with seven of eleven architectures exhibiting uncertainty inversion. These results establish COF as a practical, interpretable framework for controlled-distribution deployment and identify domain-adaptive UQ as the central open challenge for forensic deployment.