# Output Type Before Quality: A Standards-Derived XAI Admissibility Rubric for Autonomous-Driving Safety

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05461 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.05461/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Adversarial scenarios and safety testing, one of 9 directions in End-to-end autonomous driving.
- Builds on 7 of its 14 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Jun 2026.

## Placed in

- End-to-end autonomous driving / [Adversarial scenarios and safety testing](https://mlsanity.com/driving/adversarial-scenarios-and-safety-testing/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Explainable AI for Safe and Trustworthy Autonomous Driving: A Systematic Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10086/) (2024)
- [Guidance on the Assurance of Machine Learning in Autonomous Systems (AMLAS)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01564/) (2021)
- [Lost in Fog: Sensor Perturbations Expose Reasoning Fragility in Driving VLAs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.21446/) (2026)
- [The Contribution of XAI for the Safe Development and Certification of AI: An Expert-Based Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.02379/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Safety standards for ML-based autonomous driving specify the kind of evidence an assurance case must contain (directed cause-and-effect chains, quantified interventional effects, named root-cause variables), yet the XAI literature is organised by output type and technique family (saliency maps, feature attribution, counterfactuals, causal graphs, language traces). SHAP, the most-recommended ADS XAI method, returns a ranked feature list that no implementation effort can convert into a directed chain (Fig.1). We name this mismatch the evidence-type gap. From AMLAS, ISO 26262, ISO21448, ISO/PAS 8800 we derive 19 testable evidentiary criteria across 7 lifecycle stages with representative clause-cited derivations and score six XAI method classes structurally. Causal XAI emerges as structurally required to satisfy the derived criteria at three stages: hazard identification (+62% rubric gap), incident investigation (+50%), and data management (+50%); the verdict set is stable across thresholds T in (0%, 50%] and survives a worst-case single-cell flip down to T = 25%. At the remaining four stages, correlational or language-based methods are comparable or sufficient. The rubric identifies structural admissibility (necessary but not sufficient for compliance): an admissible method's specific output content may still be wrong, and validating that fidelity (the edges a fitted SCM produces, the cause a trace names) is the open assurance challenge. A single-VLA proof of concept on 1,996 real-world driving clips (79,840 rows, ten splits) is consistent with each method's observed output type matching its rubric prediction. XAI method selection for ADS safety assurance should be driven by lifecycle-stage evidence demand, not by method popularity.