# Evidence-Guided Neural Architecture Selection under Uncertainty for Subject-Specific Blood Glucose Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05373 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.05373/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Machine Learning: Methods, Metrics, and Comparisons](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07766/) (2022)
- [Scalable Marginal Likelihood Estimation for Model Selection in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.04975/) (2021)
- [A Comprehensive guide to Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network with Variational Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.02731/) (2019)
- [Layer Adaptive Node Selection in Bayesian Neural Networks: Statistical Guarantees and Implementation Details](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.11000/) (2021)
- [Quantification of Deep Neural Network Prediction Uncertainties for VVUQ of Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14615/) (2022)
- [Interpreting and generalizing deep learning in physics-based problems with functional linear models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.04569/) (2023)
- [A Framework for Strategic Discovery of Credible Neural Network Surrogate Models under Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08901/) (2024)
- [A Hybrid Differential Evolution Approach to Designing Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Image Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.06661/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reliable neural architecture selection is an open challenge in time-series forecasting under limited, noisy, and heterogeneous data, where standard heuristic architecture design and validation approaches fail to ensure accurate and reliable prediction and generalization. We propose EVIDENT (EVidence-based IDEntification of Neural archiTectures), a framework for architecture selection that integrates Bayesian training, evidence-based ranking, and task-specific validation under uncertainty. The framework explores the candidate architecture pool and identifies the lowest-capacity model that satisfies a prescribed validation criterion. We demonstrate this method using temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) for individualized blood glucose forecasting in type 1 diabetes patients. The results show that EVIDENT systematically rejects both under- and over-parameterized TCN architectures on population-level diabetes data, while identifying models that generalize reliably to unseen patients. When multiple architectures are competitive, the framework further supports plausibility-weighted ensemble predictions that enhance predictive performance. Compared with a random-search baseline, EVIDENT identified smaller architectures with more consistent forecasting performance on unseen patients. These findings establish EVIDENT as a strategy to neural architecture discovery, enabling reliable model selection for high-consequence forecasting in data-limited and heterogeneous settings.