# From Long News to Accurate Forecast: Importance-Aware Fusion and PRM-Guided Reflection for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.03097 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.03097/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 29 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 29 of 29)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [LongLLMLingua: Accelerating and Enhancing LLMs in Long Context Scenarios via Prompt Compression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06839/) (2023)
- [Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06643/) (2021)
- [TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04948/) (2023)
- [Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08278/) (2023)
- [Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlook](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10196/) (2023)
- [From News to Forecast: Integrating Event Analysis in LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting with Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17515/) (2024)
- [VersaPRM: Multi-Domain Process Reward Model via Synthetic Reasoning Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06737/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Process Reward Models: From Outcome Signals to Process Supervisions for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08049/) (2025)
- [Toward a Foundation Model for Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03916/) (2023)
- [Adaptive Methods for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting During COVID-19 Lockdown in France](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.06527/) (2020)
- [News and Load: A Quantitative Exploration of Natural Language Processing Applications for Forecasting Day-ahead Electricity System Demand](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07535/) (2023)
- [The Bidirectional Process Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.01682/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Incorporating news into time series forecasting is appealing because news can reveal abrupt exogenous events that historical values alone cannot recover. However, existing LLM-based news-forecasting pipelines face two practical limitations: relevant news articles often exceed the model's context window, and iterative retrieval of supplementary news is typically unguided, leading to redundant updates and slow convergence. We address these issues with a novel framework that combines importance-aware news compression and process-level retrieval supervision. First, we train an importance reward model that estimates the forecasting utility of each article and uses this signal to allocate compression budgets during sequential pairwise fusion, preserving informative content within a fixed context limit. Second, we introduce a process reward model (PRM) that ranks multiple supplementary-news candidates conditioned on the current error profile and the history of previously selected articles, replacing one-shot blind retrieval with quality-controlled selection. Both components are trained offline using historical data with ground truth; inference uses the frozen filtering logic and compression modules without any reflection loop. Experiments on finance, energy, traffic, and bitcoin forecasting benchmarks show that our method improves prediction accuracy over strong baselines, significantly reduces the number of refinement iterations compared to the iterative baseline, and remains effective when relevant articles span thousands of tokens.