# Learning to Refine: Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement Framework for Precipitation Nowcasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02661 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.02661/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 24 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Jun 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [FLUX.1 Kontext: Flow Matching for In-Context Image Generation and Editing in Latent Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.15742/) (2025)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [Deep multi-scale video prediction beyond mean square error](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.05440/) (2015)
- [Disentangling Physical Dynamics from Unknown Factors for Unsupervised Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01460/) (2020)
- [SimVP: Simpler yet Better Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.05099/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03458/) (2017)
- [PredRNN: A Recurrent Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.09504/) (2021)
- [Earthformer: Exploring Space-Time Transformers for Earth System Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05833/) (2022)
- [PredRNN++: Towards A Resolution of the Deep-in-Time Dilemma in Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.06300/) (2018)
- [PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10422/) (2023)
- [Memory In Memory: A Predictive Neural Network for Learning Higher-Order Non-Stationarity from Spatiotemporal Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.07490/) (2018)
- [Wavelet-based Fourier Information Interaction with Frequency Diffusion Adjustment for Underwater Image Restoration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16845/) (2023)
- [DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06734/) (2023)
- [Exploiting Multimodal Spatial-temporal Patterns for Video Object Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15691/) (2024)
- [CasCast: Skillful High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasting via Cascaded Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04290/) (2024)
- [SwinLSTM:Improving Spatiotemporal Prediction Accuracy using Swin Transformer and LSTM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09891/) (2023)
- [Frequency Autoregressive Image Generation with Continuous Tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.05305/) (2025)
- [MIMO Is All You Need : A Strong Multi-In-Multi-Out Baseline for Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04655/) (2022)
- [DiC: Rethinking Conv3x3 Designs in Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00603/) (2024)
- [From Zero to Detail: A Progressive Spectral Decoupling Paradigm for UHD Image Restoration with New Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.15654/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Temporal and Cross-Modal Alignment for Enhanced Audiovisual Video Captioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.01667/) (2026)
- [Spiking Pyramid Wavelet Transformation for High-efficient and Low-energy Image Restoration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18644/) (2026)
- [Structured Stateful Relational Scripts with a High-Quality Dataset for Multi-Shot Audio-Visual Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.15512/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate precipitation nowcasting is vital for disaster mitigation, but deep learning methods face a key trade-off: regression models produce over-smoothed, spectrally decaying predictions that blur convective details and violate turbulence power laws; diffusion models generate realistic yet unanchored hallucinations lacking physical grounding. We propose Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement (SDIR), a deterministic framework that reformulates nowcasting as progressive frequency-decoupled refinement. SDIR first extracts a stable low-frequency synoptic skeleton, then iteratively refines high-frequency textures under physical constraints, eliminating both blurring and hallucinations. It features a dual-path design: the Synoptic Frequency-Guided Former (SFG-Former) with Scale-Adaptive Transformers for global structure, and the Fourier Residual Refiner (FR-Refiner) with Scale-Conditioned Fourier Neural Operators for fine residuals. A Physically Consistent Power Spectral Density (PCPSD) loss with dynamic masking enforces a turbulence-consistent spectral distribution. Experiments on three benchmarks show SDIR significantly outperforms SOTA methods in spatial accuracy while achieving spectral fidelity competitive with diffusion-based methods, enabling reliable high-resolution operational nowcasting. Code link: https://github.com/RuntimeWarning/SDIR.