# Physically-Constrained Mamba-SDE for Remaining Useful Life Prediction under Irregular Observations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.01894 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.01894/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Time series forecasting with SSMs, one of 10 directions in State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba).
- Builds on 17 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Jun 2026.

## Placed in

- State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba) / [Time series forecasting with SSMs](https://mlsanity.com/ssm/time-series-forecasting-with-ssms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00396/) (2021)
- [Empirical Evaluation of Gated Recurrent Neural Networks on Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.3555/) (2014)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01865/) (2016)
- [Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Irregular Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08926/) (2020)
- [Scalable Gradients for Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.01328/) (2020)
- [Multi-Time Attention Networks for Irregularly Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10318/) (2021)
- [GRU-ODE-Bayes: Continuous modeling of sporadically-observed time series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12374/) (2019)
- [Neural Stochastic Differential Equations: Deep Latent Gaussian Models in the Diffusion Limit](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.09883/) (2019)
- [Multivariate Functional Principal Component Analysis for Data Observed on Different (Dimensional) Domains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.02029/) (2015)
- [Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Models for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11308/) (2023)
- [Latent SDEs on Homogeneous Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.16248/) (2023)
- [Time-Series Regeneration with Convolutional Recurrent Generative Adversarial Network for Remaining Useful Life Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03678/) (2021)
- [Amortized Control of Continuous State Space Feynman-Kac Model for Irregular Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05602/) (2024)
- [Deep Time Series Models for Scarce Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.09348/) (2021)
- [Rethinking Remaining Useful Life Prediction with Scarce Time Series Data: Regression under Indirect Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.09206/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate Remaining Useful Life prediction is critical for industrial predictive maintenance. However, real-world deployment is challenging due to the irregular nature of sensor observations, characterized by asynchronous sampling, burst missingness, and temporal jitter. Compounding this issue, purely data-driven models often generate physically implausible degradation trajectories that violate the irreversible nature of damage accumulation. To address this, we propose PC-MambaSDE, a unified continuous-time framework for robust RUL prediction under irregular observations. Specifically, we design a Mask-Aware Continuous Mamba Encoder that explicitly leverages observation masks to extract context-rich control signals. Furthermore, we introduce a Physics-Guided Latent SDE with parametrically rectified hybrid drift, superimposing a global physical bias to enforce monotonic degradation even amid severe observation gaps. Additionally, we formulate RUL prediction as a boundary value problem via a Terminal Degradation Penalty, which decouples a Health Index dimension and applies a penalty loss to guide trajectories toward the failure state. Theoretically, we prove that our variational objective is mathematically equivalent to minimizing the KL divergence via Girsanov's theorem, and we guarantee the global asymptotic stability of the learned dynamics through Lyapunov analysis. To enable rigorous evaluation, we develop a Hybrid Irregularity Generation Scheme that simulates realistic industrial imperfections. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks demonstrate that PC-MambaSDE significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly under extreme observation scarcity, validating the efficacy of embedding physical priors into continuous-time latent dynamics.