# Shortcut to Nowhere: Demystifying Deep Spurious Regression

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.01723 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.01723/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 26 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 26 of 26)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Domain-Adversarial Training of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.07818/) (2015)
- [Shortcut Learning in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07780/) (2020)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [ImageNet-trained CNNs are biased towards texture; increasing shape bias improves accuracy and robustness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12231/) (2018)
- [Distributionally Robust Neural Networks for Group Shifts: On the Importance of Regularization for Worst-Case Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08731/) (2019)
- [Class-Balanced Loss Based on Effective Number of Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.05555/) (2019)
- [Computational Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.00567/) (2018)
- [Recognition in Terra Incognita](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.04975/) (2018)
- [Just Train Twice: Improving Group Robustness without Training Group Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.09044/) (2021)
- [Age Progression/Regression by Conditional Adversarial Autoencoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08423/) (2017)
- [Last Layer Re-Training is Sufficient for Robustness to Spurious Correlations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.02937/) (2022)
- [The Pitfalls of Simplicity Bias in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07710/) (2020)
- [Learning Models with Uniform Performance via Distributionally Robust Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.08750/) (2018)
- [Environment Inference for Invariant Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.07249/) (2020)
- [Correct-N-Contrast: A Contrastive Approach for Improving Robustness to Spurious Correlations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.01517/) (2022)
- [Delving into Deep Imbalanced Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09554/) (2021)
- [Learning from Failure: Training Debiased Classifier from Biased Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02561/) (2020)
- [Change is Hard: A Closer Look at Subpopulation Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12254/) (2023)
- [Balanced MSE for Imbalanced Visual Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.16427/) (2022)
- [Rank-N-Contrast: Learning Continuous Representations for Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.01189/) (2022)
- [SimPer: Simple Self-Supervised Learning of Periodic Targets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03115/) (2022)
- [On Multi-Domain Long-Tailed Recognition, Imbalanced Domain Generalization and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.09513/) (2022)
- [A Survey of Predictive Modelling under Imbalanced Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.01658/) (2015)
- [Towards long-tailed, multi-label disease classification from chest X-ray: Overview of the CXR-LT challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16112/) (2023)
- [Regression Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26476/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.