# PR2: Predictive Routing Replay for MoE-Based LLM Reinforcement Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.00395 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00395/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MoE in reinforcement learning and robotics, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 40 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [MoE in reinforcement learning and robotics](https://mlsanity.com/moe/moe-in-reinforcement-learning-and-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 40)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06261/) (2025)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03961/) (2021)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [Asynchronous Methods for Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.01783/) (2016)
- [HybridFlow: A Flexible and Efficient RLHF Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19256/) (2024)
- [Mixtral of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04088/) (2024)
- [GShard: Scaling Giant Models with Conditional Computation and Automatic Sharding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16668/) (2020)
- [SGLang: Efficient Execution of Structured Language Model Programs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.07104/) (2023)
- [Program of Thoughts Prompting: Disentangling Computation from Reasoning for Numerical Reasoning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.12588/) (2022)
- [DeepSeek-V4: Towards Highly Efficient Million-Token Context Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19348/) (2026)
- [IMPALA: Scalable Distributed Deep-RL with Importance Weighted Actor-Learner Architectures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.01561/) (2018)
- [Group Sequence Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.18071/) (2025)
- [GLM-5: from Vibe Coding to Agentic Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.15763/) (2026)
- [Muon is Scalable for LLM Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.16982/) (2025)
- [ST-MoE: Designing Stable and Transferable Sparse Expert Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.08906/) (2022)
- [BASE Layers: Simplifying Training of Large, Sparse Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.16716/) (2021)
- [OLMoE: Open Mixture-of-Experts Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02060/) (2024)
- [MathArena: Evaluating LLMs on Uncontaminated Math Competitions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23281/) (2025)
- [Beyond Ten Turns: Unlocking Long-Horizon Agentic Search with Large-Scale Asynchronous RL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.07976/) (2025)
- [LLaMA-MoE: Building Mixture-of-Experts from LLaMA with Continual Pre-training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16554/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Routing Divergence Is Not Evidence of Behavioral Influence in Same-Weight MoE Self-Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.15787/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Mixture of Experts (MoE) Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance at scale. However, reinforcement learning (RL) on MoE-based LLMs often suffers from training instability. A root cause is router drift, i.e., expert activations can change drastically across model updates and differ between disaggregated rollout and training phases, causing large rollout--training mismatch and unstable importance sampling weights in PPO-style RL algorithms. Routing replay mitigates this issue by freezing the replay route within each reasoning trajectory, but it ignores how the router evolves under off-policy updates and thus causes router staleness. To address this limitation, we propose Predictive Routing Replay (PR2), which augments each router with a lightweight evolution predictor that learns to anticipate short-horizon router evolution. During the rollout phase, we use the predictive routing distribution to apply top-k routing, enabling gradients to reach experts that are likely to become active after updates. During the training phase, we replay the resulting predicted route to retain consistency for stable importance estimation. Theoretical analysis and experiments support that PR2 reduces routing-induced mismatch, improves RL stability, and yields stronger performance across various reasoning benchmarks.