# Flow Matching for Convective-Scale Precipitation Downscaling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.00281 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00281/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 8 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Fourier Features Let Networks Learn High Frequency Functions in Low Dimensional Domains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10739/) (2020)
- [Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08797/) (2023)
- [Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15214/) (2023)
- [SCORES: Shape Composition with Recursive Substructure Priors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.05398/) (2018)
- [Machine learning emulation of precipitation from km-scale UK regional climate simulations using a diffusion model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.14158/) (2024)
- [Stochastic Flow Matching for Resolving Small-Scale Physics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.19814/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Generative machine learning is an increasingly important complement to dynamical downscaling for producing high-resolution precipitation projections, with diffusion models currently the leading approach. Flow matching is a related generative framework that has recently achieved strong results across image, video and other domains, and shown early promise for downscaling. We train a flow matching model to map daily precipitation from 8 km to 2 km over a convective-scale domain centred on Singapore, and benchmark it against CPMGEM, a score-based diffusion model. Flow matching achieves consistently better spatial skill: higher fractions skill score at every precipitation threshold and neighbourhood scale tested, and tighter structure and amplitude components of the SAL score with comparable location skill. However, flow matching underestimates the upper tail of the precipitation distribution, resulting in a dry bias in the climatological mean. These results suggest that flow matching is a competitive generative framework for convective-scale precipitation downscaling, particularly well suited to capturing spatial structure.