# Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.31220 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.31220/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 65 of its 115 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 65)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Understanding intermediate layers using linear classifier probes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.01644/) (2016)
- [Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03341/) (2023)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Probing Classifiers: Promises, Shortcomings, and Advances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.12452/) (2021)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03827/) (2022)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [The Geometry of Truth: Emergent Linear Structure in Large Language Model Representations of True/False Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06824/) (2023)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.00955/) (2020)
- [Mechanistic Interpretability for AI Safety -- A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14082/) (2024)
- [Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07998/) (2021)
- [ShortGPT: Layers in Large Language Models are More Redundant Than You Expect](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03853/) (2024)
- [Do Llamas Work in English? On the Latent Language of Multilingual Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10588/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [MKQA: A Linguistically Diverse Benchmark for Multilingual Open Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.15207/) (2020)
- [How do Large Language Models Handle Multilingualism?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18815/) (2024)
- [Cross-Lingual Consistency of Factual Knowledge in Multilingual Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10378/) (2023)
- [Don't Trust ChatGPT when Your Question is not in English: A Study of Multilingual Abilities and Types of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16339/) (2023)
- [On the Multilingual Ability of Decoder-based Pre-trained Language Models: Finding and Controlling Language-Specific Neurons](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.02431/) (2024)
- [LLM Internal States Reveal Hallucination Risk Faced With a Query](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.03282/) (2024)
- [Do Multilingual LLMs Think In English?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.15603/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs: A Simple Supervised Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15993/) (2024)
- [On the Calibration of Large Language Models and Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.13240/) (2023)
- [Investigating Multilingual NMT Representations at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.02197/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [An Analysis of Residual-Stream Geometry Across Transformer Depth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.18348/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Confidence estimation (CE), i.e. quantifying the reliability of a model's prediction, has attracted great interest in the context of large language models (LLMs). However, most studies focus on English, ignoring the multilingual reality of LLM usage, while many CE methods degrade or require retraining across languages. To address this gap, we investigate whether multilingual LLMs encode shared, language-transferable confidence features in open-ended question answering. We use a lightweight linear probe that predicts answer correctness directly from intermediate representations. Trained monolingually, the probe generalizes zero-shot to unseen, linguistically diverse languages without target-language supervision. Multiple ablations and learned layer weights reveal that confidence features concentrate in middle layers across languages, suggesting a shared confidence subspace. While zero-shot cross-lingual performance depends on similarity to the source language, the probe provides a strong baseline without any retraining and compares favorably to other popular confidence estimation methods.