# Spatio-temporal stochastic graph-based learning for infectious disease forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30662 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.30662/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.00596/) (2019)
- [Fast Graph Representation Learning with PyTorch Geometric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.02428/) (2019)
- [EvolveGCN: Evolving Graph Convolutional Networks for Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10191/) (2019)
- [Structured Sequence Modeling with Graph Convolutional Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.07659/) (2016)
- [PyTorch Geometric Temporal: Spatiotemporal Signal Processing with Neural Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07788/) (2021)
- [Examining COVID-19 Forecasting using Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.03113/) (2020)
- [GC-LSTM: Graph Convolution Embedded LSTM for Dynamic Link Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04206/) (2018)
- [A Review of Graph Neural Networks in Epidemic Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.19852/) (2024)
- [Pay Attention to Evolution: Time Series Forecasting with Deep Graph-Evolution Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.12833/) (2020)
- [Chickenpox Cases in Hungary: a Benchmark Dataset for Spatiotemporal Signal Processing with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08100/) (2021)
- [Deep learning of contagion dynamics on complex networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.05410/) (2020)
- [Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.11407/) (2020)
- [Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.10218/) (2020)
- [Estimating the State of Epidemics Spreading with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05060/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Spatio-temporal graph-based models have typically been used to forecast new cases of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and chickenpox outbreaks. However, the use of stochastic modelling into their learning process has been surprisingly under-investigated and rarely considered entire data sets of large countries. As a result, it is unknown whether these models would provide accurate forecasts in real-world disease spread scenarios. In this work, we propose a spatio-temporal stochastic graph-based architecture that integrates a stochastic formulation and uncertainty approximation process to forecast new infectious disease cases. We find that our approach can adapt to encode large and small population geographical networks within a single model architecture. Using two real-world data sets, COVID-19 in the US and chickenpox in Hungary, we report an enhanced effect of the proposed architecture across predictions of the 2022 first wave for COVID-19 in the US and comparative results of chickenpox waves during 2012-2014 in Hungary. By benchmarking with four spatio-temporal graph-based models, quantitative results show competitive overall weekly performance of the proposed approach on forecasting new cases for all 3,218 US counties and all 20 Hungary counties. The proposed approach can represent overall epidemic progression relative to baselines, though with a one-step delay; while exhibiting a reduced sensitivity to high-frequency and low-amplitude variability.