# A Predictive Law for On-Policy Self-Distillation From World Feedback

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30070 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.30070/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in On-policy and self-distillation for LLMs, one of 12 directions in Knowledge distillation.
- Builds on 22 of its 25 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Knowledge distillation / [On-policy and self-distillation for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/distill/on-policy-and-self-distillation-for-llms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.02531/) (2015)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [HybridFlow: A Flexible and Efficient RLHF Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19256/) (2024)
- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [On-Policy Distillation of Language Models: Learning from Self-Generated Mistakes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13649/) (2023)
- [DSPy: Compiling Declarative Language Model Calls into Self-Improving Pipelines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03714/) (2023)
- [GEPA: Reflective Prompt Evolution Can Outperform Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.19457/) (2025)
- [Self-Distilled Reasoner: On-Policy Self-Distillation for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.18734/) (2026)
- [Policy Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06295/) (2015)
- [Agentic Context Engineering: Evolving Contexts for Self-Improving Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04618/) (2025)
- [Reinforcement Learning via Self-Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.20802/) (2026)
- [Rethinking On-Policy Distillation of Large Language Models: Phenomenology, Mechanism, and Recipe](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.13016/) (2026)
- [Self-Distillation Enables Continual Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.19897/) (2026)
- [On-Policy Context Distillation for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.12275/) (2026)
- [A Survey of On-Policy Distillation for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.00626/) (2026)
- [Scaling Test-Time Compute Without Verification or RL is Suboptimal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12118/) (2025)
- [Expanding the Capabilities of Reinforcement Learning via Text Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02482/) (2026)
- [Online Experiential Learning for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.16856/) (2026)
- [Experiential Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13949/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Understanding the Synergy between SFT, RLVR, and OPD in LLM Post-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.31900/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Moving beyond simple scalar rewards toward richer world feedback is a natural path to more scalable RL post-training. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) is a promising recent approach that uses arbitrary feedback as learning signal, yet its reliability compared to established methods, such as GRPO, remains unclear. We identify a strikingly consistent linear correlation between the initial student-self-teacher performance gap and the final performance improvement in OPSD. This relationship holds across context types and model families, providing a powerful predictive law for anticipating the outcome of an OPSD configuration without running the full training procedure. Interestingly, we show that this linear predictability holds with model scale, suggesting a potential basis for new empirical scaling laws on larger models with stronger in-context learning capabilities. In essence, our findings show that OPSD performance can be predicted and tuned before training, offering a principled way to incorporate world feedback as a first-class component of the post-training pipeline.