# Beyond Attack Success Rate: Temporal Logit Observability for LLM Safety Failures

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29629 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.29629/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Jailbreaking, one of 12 directions in LLM safety and security.
- Builds on 27 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM safety and security / [Jailbreaking](https://mlsanity.com/safety/jailbreaking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05862/) (2022)
- [Mistral 7B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06825/) (2023)
- [Universal and Transferable Adversarial Attacks on Aligned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15043/) (2023)
- [Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08073/) (2022)
- [Learning to summarize from human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.01325/) (2020)
- [Fine-Tuning Language Models from Human Preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.08593/) (2019)
- [Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00118/) (2024)
- [HarmBench: A Standardized Evaluation Framework for Automated Red Teaming and Robust Refusal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04249/) (2024)
- [Representation Engineering: A Top-Down Approach to AI Transparency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01405/) (2023)
- [Llama Guard: LLM-based Input-Output Safeguard for Human-AI Conversations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06674/) (2023)
- [Refusal in Language Models Is Mediated by a Single Direction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11717/) (2024)
- [Red Teaming Language Models with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03286/) (2022)
- [JailbreakBench: An Open Robustness Benchmark for Jailbreaking Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.01318/) (2024)
- [Jailbreaking ChatGPT via Prompt Engineering: An Empirical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13860/) (2023)
- [DeepInception: Hypnotize Large Language Model to Be Jailbreaker](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.03191/) (2023)
- [SafeDecoding: Defending against Jailbreak Attacks via Safety-Aware Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.08983/) (2024)
- [Advancing LLM Safe Alignment with Safety Representation Ranking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15710/) (2025)
- [LLM Jailbreak Detection for (Almost) Free!](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.14558/) (2025)
- [Refusal Falls off a Cliff: How Safety Alignment Fails in Reasoning?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.06036/) (2025)
- [Single-pass Detection of Jailbreaking Input in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.15435/) (2025)
- [CARE: Decoding Time Safety Alignment via Rollback and Introspection Intervention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.06982/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Attack Success Rate (ASR) evaluates each jailbreak with a single yes/no label at the end of generation, telling us whether a failure happened but not how it unfolded. Two attacks that produce equally harmful outputs may have followed completely different paths, and ASR cannot tell them apart. We make those hidden paths observable from logits alone. Temporal Logit Observability (TLO) is a training-free diagnostic that watches a compliance-refusal margin during decoding and places each model-attack condition on a calibrated 2D plane. By design, this plane is most informative exactly where ASR is least informative: among attacks that succeed for genuinely different reasons. Across four aligned LLMs and three jailbreak paradigms, attacks with nearly identical ASR land at clearly different points on the plane: the same model can fail through different temporal patterns. The geometry matches refusal-direction probes from hidden states on most conditions, with one model showing the limit of our fixed-lexicon approach. A simple early-stop rule derived from TLO cuts successful jailbreaks by more than half, without false alarms on plain benign queries. Safety evaluation should report when and how a failure unfolds, not only whether it occurred. TLO makes the first two observable from logits alone.