# VLAConf: Calibrated Task-Success Confidence for Vision-Language-Action Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29605 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.29605/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Failure recovery and robustness, one of 13 directions in Vision-language-action models.
- Builds on 38 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Vision-language-action models / [Failure recovery and robustness](https://mlsanity.com/vla/failure-recovery-and-robustness/)
- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 38)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15818/) (2023)
- [OpenVLA: An Open-Source Vision-Language-Action Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09246/) (2024)
- [π0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.24164/) (2024)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.12213/) (2024)
- [LIBERO: Benchmarking Knowledge Transfer for Lifelong Robot Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03310/) (2023)
- [Exploration by Random Network Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.12894/) (2018)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Causal World Modeling for Robot Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21998/) (2026)
- [Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01928/) (2023)
- [LIBERO-Plus: In-depth Robustness Analysis of Vision-Language-Action Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13626/) (2025)
- [Cosmos Policy: Fine-Tuning Video Models for Visuomotor Control and Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.16163/) (2026)
- [LIBERO-PRO: Towards Robust and Fair Evaluation of Vision-Language-Action Models Beyond Memorization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03827/) (2025)
- [AHA: A Vision-Language-Model for Detecting and Reasoning Over Failures in Robotic Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.00371/) (2024)
- [Consistency Flow Matching: Defining Straight Flows with Velocity Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.02398/) (2024)
- [SAFE: Multitask Failure Detection for Vision-Language-Action Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09937/) (2025)
- [Unpacking Failure Modes of Generative Policies: Runtime Monitoring of Consistency and Progress](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04640/) (2024)
- [Real-Time Anomaly Detection and Reactive Planning with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.08735/) (2024)
- [Linguistic Calibration of Long-Form Generations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.00474/) (2024)
- [Can We Detect Failures Without Failure Data? Uncertainty-Aware Runtime Failure Detection for Imitation Learning Policies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.08558/) (2025)
- [Failure Prediction at Runtime for Generative Robot Policies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09459/) (2025)
- [Multi-Task Interactive Robot Fleet Learning with Visual World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.22689/) (2024)
- [A System-Level View on Out-of-Distribution Data in Robotics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.14020/) (2022)
- [Flipping Coins to Estimate Pseudocounts for Exploration in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03186/) (2023)
- [Failure Prediction with Statistical Guarantees for Vision-Based Robot Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05894/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Uncertainty-Gated Exploration Noise Suppresses Task Collapse in Online RL Fine-Tuning of a Flow-Matching Vision-Language-Action Policy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.28838/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Task-success confidence estimation for Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models provides a crucial task-level signal for monitoring manipulation in open-world environments and supporting downstream decision-making. Existing methods typically construct task-success confidence from action-token probabilities. However, such probabilities are not naturally available in flow-matching policies, limiting their applicability to mainstream flow-matching VLAs. To address this issue, we propose VLAConf, a two-stage representation-level confidence framework that operates on frozen pretrained VLA representations. A step-conditioned Coin-Flip Network learns an uncalibrated inverse success-support score from successful demonstrations, while a low-capacity calibrator fitted on outcome-labeled successful and failed rollouts maps the aggregated score to task-success probability. Experimental results on the LIBERO benchmark demonstrate that VLAConf improves online task-success confidence estimation over alternative approaches. We further demonstrate its utility in selective expert assistance, where confidence-triggered handoffs improve task success over no intervention. Its applicability is also evaluated in real-robot experiments. To access the source code and supplementary videos, visit https://sites.google.com/view/vlaconf.