# Financially Guided Deep Portfolio Optimization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28853 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.28853/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 18 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [OptunaHub: A Platform for Black-Box Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.02798/) (2025)
- [DeformTime: Capturing Variable Dependencies with Deformable Attention for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07438/) (2024)
- [Neuroevolution Neural Architecture Search for Evolving RNNs in Stock Return Prediction and Portfolio Trading](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.17212/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction costs. Standard predict-then-optimize methods first forecast returns and then solve for weights, compounding prediction errors and often failing under regime shifts. We propose an end-to-end framework that directly optimizes differentiable surrogates of key financial metrics (Sharpe ratio, Omega ratio, Conditional Value-at-Risk, and risk parity), allowing neural networks to learn portfolio weights via backpropagation. Our expanding-window walk-forward procedure, applied to 50 S&P 500 stocks from 2007 to 2023, incorporates realistic bid-ask spread costs and rebalances quarterly. On the challenging out-of-sample test period (2022-2023), the best model, an AttentionLSTM with the Omega-CVaR-RiskParity loss, achieves an annualized Sharpe of 0.29 and a total compounded return of +7.86%, while the S&P 500 delivers -4.52% total compounded return and an annualized Sharpe of -0.02. This outperforms the S&P 500 by 12.38 percentage points, while keeping tail risk (CVaR) nearly unchanged. The framework outperforms the equal-weight portfolio, S&P 500, and traditional methods (MVP, HRP, NCO, ERC), demonstrating that embedding financial objectives directly into model training yields robust, economically meaningful outperformance even in adverse market conditions.