# Adaptive Reservoir Computing for Multi-Scenario Chaotic System Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28145 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.28145/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 12 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Backpropagation Algorithms and Reservoir Computing in Recurrent Neural Networks for the Forecasting of Complex Spatiotemporal Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05266/) (2019)
- [The Seismic Wavefield Common Task Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.19927/) (2025)
- [CTF4Nuclear: Common Task Framework for Nuclear Fission and Fusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.15549/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We present an adaptive reservoir computing framework for the CTF-4-Science Lorenz benchmark, which evaluates machine learning models across twelve distinct tasks spanning five qualitatively different scenarios: baseline forecasting, noisy signal reconstruction, forecasting under noise, few-shot learning, and parametric generalization. Rather than applying a uniform inference strategy, we tailor the training and prediction procedure of Echo State Networks (ESNs) to the specific demands of each evaluation scenario. Our key contributions are fourfold: (1) exact reservoir state synchronization that eliminates warmup approximation error in short-time prediction; (2) histogram-guided candidate selection that directly optimizes the long-time ergodic evaluation metric; (3) multi-seed reservoir search for few-shot regimes with severely limited training data; and (4) sequential multi-sequence training that resolves state-distribution mismatch in parametric generalization tasks. The proposed framework achieves a score of 74.91 on the public benchmark leaderboard, demonstrating that carefully adapted reservoir computing constitutes a competitive and computationally efficient approach for diverse chaotic system modeling challenges.