# Confidence-Orchestrated Self-Evolution against Uncertain LLM Feedback

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28010 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.28010/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05457/) (2018)
- [SQuAD: 100,000+ Questions for Machine Comprehension of Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.05250/) (2016)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Can a Suit of Armor Conduct Electricity? A New Dataset for Open Book Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02789/) (2018)
- [CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00937/) (2018)
- [Challenging BIG-Bench Tasks and Whether Chain-of-Thought Can Solve Them](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09261/) (2022)
- [A Survey on LLM-as-a-Judge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.15594/) (2024)
- [Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14858/) (2022)
- [Is Your Code Generated by ChatGPT Really Correct? Rigorous Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.01210/) (2023)
- [OlympiadBench: A Challenging Benchmark for Promoting AGI with Olympiad-Level Bilingual Multimodal Scientific Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14008/) (2024)
- [Prioritized Experience Replay](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.05952/) (2015)
- [Large Language Models are not Fair Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17926/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models Cannot Self-Correct Reasoning Yet](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01798/) (2023)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [LLM Evaluators Recognize and Favor Their Own Generations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.13076/) (2024)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [From Generation to Judgment: Opportunities and Challenges of LLM-as-a-judge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16594/) (2024)
- [Absolute Zero: Reinforced Self-play Reasoning with Zero Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.03335/) (2025)
- [Distributed Prioritized Experience Replay](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.00933/) (2018)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [R-Zero: Self-Evolving Reasoning LLM from Zero Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.05004/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Self-evolving large language models (LLMs) learn by generating their own training tasks and solutions, reducing reliance on human-curated supervision. However, in many reasoning domains, the model must also validate generated tasks and judge generated answers to obtain training signals. This creates a training-signal challenge: erroneous self-judgments become erroneous gradient updates. Existing approaches either rely on external verifiers, which limits generality, or treat noisy self-generated feedback as supervision. We propose COSE (Confidence-Orchestrated Self-Evolution), which uses the LLM's intrinsic confidence as a lightweight uncertainty signal to modulate learning. COSE introduces confidence-weighted PPO updates and confidence-prioritized replay. Across 19 held-out benchmarks and four Qwen/Llama backbones (0.6B--4B), COSE consistently improves over base models and achieves the best average performance in general reasoning and mathematics, while remaining competitive on code. Code and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/COSE_-B5C2.