# Bayesian Deployment Approval for Learned Landing Controllers under Finite Rollout Validation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.27720 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27720/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in RL for robot navigation and UAV control, one of 15 directions in Deep reinforcement learning methods.
- Builds on 11 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Deep reinforcement learning methods / [RL for robot navigation and UAV control](https://mlsanity.com/deeprl/rl-for-robot-navigation-and-uav-control/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Safe Reinforcement Learning via Shielding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.08611/) (2017)
- [Sim-to-Real Transfer in Deep Reinforcement Learning for Robotics: a Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13303/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Collision Avoidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.01182/) (2017)
- [Reinforcement Learning for UAV Attitude Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.04154/) (2018)
- [Risk-Calibrated Process Capability Approval with Finite Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.14479/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement learning and data-driven autonomous controllers are commonly evaluated using cumulative reward and empirical success frequency under finite simulation trajectories. However, such empirical metrics do not necessarily provide sufficient statistical evidence regarding deployment readiness under uncertainty. This work develops a Bayesian approval framework for learned autonomous landing controllers under finite rollout evidence. A probabilistic landing capability formulation is introduced based on touchdown safety satisfaction under uncertain operating conditions, while Bayesian posterior inference is used to quantify uncertainty regarding the true deployment capability of learned policies. Posterior approval probability and posterior deployment risk are further introduced for deployment-oriented evaluation, together with a sequential validation framework supporting approve/reject/continue decisions during progressive rollout testing. Simulation experiments using PPO and SAC controllers demonstrate that empirical success and reward optimization may produce overconfident deployment interpretation under limited validation evidence, whereas posterior approval inference provides a more uncertainty-calibrated assessment of deployment readiness. The proposed framework provides a practical statistical connection between conventional reinforcement-learning evaluation and deployment-oriented validation under uncertainty and may be generalized to broader classes of learned autonomous systems.