# How Do Uncertainty Estimators Align with Hallucination Occurrence in LLMs?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.27016 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27016/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 47 of its 57 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 47)

- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [DeBERTa: Decoding-enhanced BERT with Disentangled Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.03654/) (2020)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.05232/) (2023)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Measuring short-form factuality in large language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04368/) (2024)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [AlignScore: Evaluating Factual Consistency with a Unified Alignment Function](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16739/) (2023)
- [RAGTruth: A Hallucination Corpus for Developing Trustworthy Retrieval-Augmented Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.00396/) (2023)
- [Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10608/) (2020)
- [A Simple Fix to Mahalanobis Distance for Improving Near-OOD Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09022/) (2021)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07383/) (2023)
- [Factuality Challenges in the Era of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05189/) (2023)
- [To Believe or Not to Believe Your LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02543/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraph](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15627/) (2024)
- [A Comprehensive Survey of Hallucination in Large Language, Image, Video and Audio Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.09589/) (2024)
- [HalluLens: LLM Hallucination Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.17550/) (2025)
- [LUQ: Long-text Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20279/) (2024)
- [Mutual Information Alleviates Hallucinations in Abstractive Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.13210/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty in Language Models: Assessment through Rank-Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.03163/) (2024)
- [Adaptive Retrieval Without Self-Knowledge? Bringing Uncertainty Back Home](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12835/) (2025)
- [Detection of Word Adversarial Examples in Text Classification: Benchmark and Baseline via Robust Density Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.01677/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs through Minimum Bayes Risk: Bridging Confidence and Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.04964/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) can hallucinate, but do model uncertainty estimators reliably reveal when they do? Although uncertainty estimators are increasingly used to identify unreliable generations, their relationship with hallucination remains poorly understood and is often taken for granted. We systematically evaluate 46 uncertainty estimators across complementary hallucination settings, covering both intrinsic hallucinations, where outputs are unsupported by the provided context, and extrinsic hallucinations, where claims are unsupported by expected model knowledge. Across four benchmarks and multiple LLMs, we find that the association between uncertainty and hallucination varies widely and is often weak, depending on the hallucination setting and the model under evaluation. These results challenge the use of uncertainty as a direct signal of hallucination and clarify when it provides useful information.