# Measuring Prediction Uncertainty in Neural Cellular Automata

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26726 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.26726/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 18 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Kvasir-SEG: A Segmented Polyp Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.07069/) (2019)
- [Skin Lesion Analysis Toward Melanoma Detection: A Challenge at the 2017 International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging (ISBI), Hosted by the International Skin Imaging Collaboration (ISIC)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.05006/) (2017)
- [Medical Image Segmentation Using Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13120/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty-Informed Deep Learning Models Enable High-Confidence Predictions for Digital Histopathology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.04516/) (2022)
- [NuInsSeg: A Fully Annotated Dataset for Nuclei Instance Segmentation in H&E-Stained Histological Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.01760/) (2023)
- [Med-NCA: Robust and Lightweight Segmentation with Neural Cellular Automata](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.03473/) (2023)
- [M3D-NCA: Robust 3D Segmentation with Built-in Quality Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.02954/) (2023)
- [Neural Cellular Automata for Lightweight, Robust and Explainable Classification of White Blood Cell Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.05584/) (2024)
- [OctreeNCA: Single-Pass 184 MP Segmentation on Consumer Hardware](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06993/) (2025)
- [Neural Cellular Automata for Weakly Supervised Segmentation of White Blood Cells](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.12322/) (2025)
- [Attention Pooling Enhances NCA-based Classification of Microscopy Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.12324/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Applications of Neural Cellular Automata: State of the Art, Challenges and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.24595/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Neural cellular automata (NCA) provide a lightweight alternative to encoder-decoder segmentation networks. However, it can be difficult to decide when a prediction should be trusted. Here, we study uncertainty estimation for NCA-based medical image segmentation without modifying the underlying architecture or retraining the model. Our approach is motivated by viewing the NCA as a dynamical system where convergent attractors correspond to confident predictions. Concretely, we propose resilience, a simple measure that leverages the intrinsic iterative structure of NCAs by probing the stability of the final prediction under small perturbations of the automaton state. Predictions that return to the same solution are deemed confident, while those that change substantially are flagged as uncertain. We evaluate uncertainty by its ability to predict segmentation quality using selective prediction metrics (DeltaDice@90 and AURC) and ranking metrics (AUROC and AUPRC). Across multiple medical segmentation benchmarks, resilience identifies failure cases more reliably than baselines, improving trust and safety in NCA-based models.