# Target-Oriented Statistical Compression: Sufficiency, Reverse Martingales, and Sequential Monitoring

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26568 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.26568/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 26 May 2026.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [What a Data Release Must Preserve for Off-Policy Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.15283/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Statistical procedures rarely retain all features of the observed data. A sufficient statistic removes information irrelevant to a parameter; a maximum likelihood estimate compresses an empirical objective into an optimizing point; and a hidden state in a sequential model compresses past observations into a learned representation. This article develops these practices under the unified notion of target-oriented statistical compression: a useful summary preserves what matters for an inferential, predictive, or decision-relevant target, rather than every detail of the realized data path. The central object is the conditional target process (Mn=E(ZgivenGn)), where (Z) is the target and (Gn=σ(Tn)) is the information retained by the compression map (Tn). When ((Gn)) is a decreasing filtration, ((Mn)) is a reverse martingale with limit (M_∞=E(ZgivenG_∞)). Exact sufficiency corresponds to lossless compression, while approximate summaries such as penalized estimators, principal components, and neural-network hidden states produce reverse quasi-martingale defects measuring coherence loss across compression levels. The diagnostic (rn=|Mn-Mn-1|) is treated as an observable stability proxy, not as an unbiased estimator of the theoretical defect. Boundary degeneracy in sequential binary problems is developed as a central application. Practical boundary claims require joint assessment of boundary closeness, uncertainty control, and trajectory stability. The companion paper citetchang2025rm develops the corresponding stopping procedures, finite-sample bounds, and numerical evidence; the present paper provides the broader theoretical infrastructure and extends the framework to Gaussian, Poisson, and quasi-martingale monitoring problems.