# Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25998 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.25998/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Human values and AI feedback alignment, one of 10 directions in LLM alignment / RLHF / preference optimisation.
- Builds on 55 of its 102 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM alignment / RLHF / preference optimisation / [Human values and AI feedback alignment](https://mlsanity.com/alignment/human-values-and-ai-feedback-alignment/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 55)

- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [Dense Passage Retrieval for Open-Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.04906/) (2020)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Extracting Training Data from Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07805/) (2020)
- [WebArena: A Realistic Web Environment for Building Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13854/) (2023)
- [Shortcut Learning in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07780/) (2020)
- [Leveraging Passage Retrieval with Generative Models for Open Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01282/) (2020)
- [Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04132/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models are not Fair Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17926/) (2023)
- [Deduplicating Training Data Makes Language Models Better](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.06499/) (2021)
- [Documenting Large Webtext Corpora: A Case Study on the Colossal Clean Crawled Corpus](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08758/) (2021)
- [Hybrid LLM: Cost-Efficient and Quality-Aware Query Routing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14618/) (2024)
- [Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00050/) (2023)
- [Deduplicating Training Data Mitigates Privacy Risks in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.06539/) (2022)
- [From Pretraining Data to Language Models to Downstream Tasks: Tracking the Trails of Political Biases Leading to Unfair NLP Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.08283/) (2023)
- [RouterBench: A Benchmark for Multi-LLM Routing System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.12031/) (2024)
- [Causal Inference in Natural Language Processing: Estimation, Prediction, Interpretation and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.00725/) (2021)
- [Causal Parrots: Large Language Models May Talk Causality But Are Not Causal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.13067/) (2023)
- [Benchmarking Cognitive Biases in Large Language Models as Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17012/) (2023)
- [Can Large Language Models Infer Causation from Correlation?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05836/) (2023)
- [Nonparametric Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: From Theory to Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10943/) (2021)
- [OffsetBias: Leveraging Debiased Data for Tuning Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.06551/) (2024)
- [Nonparametric methods for doubly robust estimation of continuous treatment effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1507.00747/) (2015)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Which LLM for Which Work? Budgeted Model Allocation under Uncertain Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.29560/) (2026)
- [What Can Component-Replacement Evidence Establish? A Critical Scoping Review of Local Decisions in LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.39989/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language model (LLM) development is currently driven by large-scale empirical iteration over data mixtures, reward models, routing strategies, and evaluation pipelines. Here, we argue that many central questions in LLM development and evaluation are inherently causal: What is the effect of adding a data domain during pretraining? How do annotator preferences change when LLMs generate text in a different style? Should a prompt be routed to a larger or smaller model given inference cost constraints? In general, causal methods are well-suited to such settings where interventions change outcomes but, surprisingly, are underrepresented in LLM development. Our contribution is threefold: (1) We explain how causal methods can help develop modern LLM development and evaluation: LLM development relies heavily on logged data, which are often subject to confounding and distribution shifts; evaluation uses learned but potentially biased judges; and deployment environments are non-stationary. These conditions make purely predictive approaches fragile and create opportunities for principled identification and estimation methods from causal inference. (2) We further map opportunities for causal methods in the entire LLM development pipeline, including pretraining, alignment, routing, agentic workflows, and evaluation. (3) We discuss new research opportunities around leveraging causal methods for LLM development and evaluation. Overall, we argue that causal methods are potentially underutilized for the LLM development and evaluation pipeline, despite the fact that such methods can ensure a reliable and scientifically grounded design.