# Courtroom Analogy: New Perspective on Uncertainty-Aware Classification

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25616 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.25616/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 33 of its 55 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.09412/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Fashion-MNIST: a Novel Image Dataset for Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07747/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Spectral Normalization for Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.05957/) (2018)
- [Class-Balanced Loss Based on Effective Number of Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.05555/) (2019)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [Long-tail learning via logit adjustment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.07314/) (2020)
- [Deep Evidential Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.02600/) (2019)
- [Human uncertainty makes classification more robust](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07086/) (2019)
- [Being Bayesian, Even Just a Bit, Fixes Overconfidence in ReLU Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.10118/) (2020)
- [Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A Simple Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11582/) (2021)
- [Posterior Network: Uncertainty Estimation without OOD Samples via Density-Based Pseudo-Counts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09239/) (2020)
- [Ensemble Distribution Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.00076/) (2019)
- [Variational Bayesian Last Layers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11599/) (2024)
- [Pitfalls of Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification through Loss Minimisation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.06102/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty Estimation by Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.02045/) (2023)
- [A Simple Approach to Improve Single-Model Deep Uncertainty via Distance-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.00403/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Deep Classifiers using Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04183/) (2020)
- [On Second-Order Scoring Rules for Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.12736/) (2023)
- [Is Epistemic Uncertainty Faithfully Represented by Evidential Deep Learning Methods?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.09056/) (2024)
- [Learn to Accumulate Evidence from All Training Samples: Theory and Practice](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.11113/) (2023)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Evidential Deep Learning and Its Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.04720/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation by Density Aware Evidential Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.08754/) (2024)
- [Are Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities of Evidential Deep Learning a Mirage?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.06160/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Single-pass uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for classification represent uncertainty by predicting a tractable distribution over the class probability vector. While existing approaches primarily focus on enhancing the expressiveness of this distribution, they often provide limited insight into how predictive uncertainty is structured and aggregated, resulting in weak interpretability. We introduce the courtroom analogy, which conceptualizes uncertainty-aware classification as a structured debate among class-specific advocates. Each advocate forms a probabilistic opinion, and a final verdict is reached by aggregating these opinions using input-dependent plausibility weights. In this framework, each advocate's opinion is modeled as a Dirichlet distribution whose concentration parameter is decomposed into shared evidence and class-specific advocacy. This yields a structured mixture of Dirichlet distributions with semantically interpretable parameters. To instantiate this formulation, we propose Mixture of Dirichlet EXperts (MoDEX), a single-pass neural architecture that predicts the courtroom parameters, enabling efficient and expressive UQ while explicitly modeling uncertainty aggregation. We demonstrate that MoDEX enjoys strong theoretical properties and achieves state-of-the-art UQ performance across diverse benchmarks, yielding interpretable uncertainty estimates with meaningful semantics.