# Polynomial Context-Truncation Sensitivity in Autoregressive Language Models: Sequential Wyner-Ziv Bounds for KV Cache Compression

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25085 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.25085/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in KV cache optimization, one of 12 directions in Efficient LLM inference and serving.
- Builds on 23 of its 61 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Efficient LLM inference and serving / [KV cache optimization](https://mlsanity.com/inference/kv-cache-optimization/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Efficient Streaming Language Models with Attention Sinks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17453/) (2023)
- [GQA: Training Generalized Multi-Query Transformer Models from Multi-Head Checkpoints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13245/) (2023)
- [Transformer Feed-Forward Layers Are Key-Value Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14913/) (2020)
- [DeepSeek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04434/) (2024)
- [SnapKV: LLM Knows What You are Looking for Before Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14469/) (2024)
- [Fast Transformer Decoding: One Write-Head is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02150/) (2019)
- [KIVI: A Tuning-Free Asymmetric 2bit Quantization for KV Cache](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02750/) (2024)
- [Quest: Query-Aware Sparsity for Efficient Long-Context LLM Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10774/) (2024)
- [Model Tells You What to Discard: Adaptive KV Cache Compression for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01801/) (2023)
- [Scissorhands: Exploiting the Persistence of Importance Hypothesis for LLM KV Cache Compression at Test Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17118/) (2023)
- [PyramidKV: Dynamic KV Cache Compression based on Pyramidal Information Funneling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02069/) (2024)
- [Attention is Not All You Need: Pure Attention Loses Rank Doubly Exponentially with Depth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03404/) (2021)
- [SmolLM2: When Smol Goes Big -- Data-Centric Training of a Small Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.02737/) (2025)
- [The Intrinsic Dimension of Images and Its Impact on Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08894/) (2021)
- [Intrinsic dimension of data representations in deep neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12784/) (2019)
- [Ada-KV: Optimizing KV Cache Eviction by Adaptive Budget Allocation for Efficient LLM Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.11550/) (2024)
- [The Lipschitz Constant of Self-Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04710/) (2020)
- [A mathematical perspective on Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.10794/) (2023)
- [GEAR: An Efficient KV Cache Compression Recipe for Near-Lossless Generative Inference of LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05527/) (2024)
- [Lipschitz Normalization for Self-Attention Layers with Application to Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.04886/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We study the rate-distortion limits of online KV cache compression in autoregressive language models, formulating it as sequential Wyner-Ziv source coding on the filtration induced by the model, with the next-step query as decoder side information. Empirically, across four models spanning two families and 0.5-3B parameters, we find that the next-token distribution's sensitivity to context truncation decays polynomially rather than geometrically: a power law improves on an exponential fit by an order of magnitude in extrapolation, the fitted exponent is recovered independently from a sink-plus-recent KL measurement, and the decay is verified to be free of positional-encoding artifacts by a position-preserving ablation. Under a corresponding polynomial truncation-sensitivity assumption, our main result characterizes the per-token memory requirement of suffix-only cache policies: a sliding-window scheme attains distortion varepsilon with window w = O(varepsilon-1/α), and -- under an additional two-sided Bayes-risk condition -- a converse shows w = Omega(varepsilon-1/α) is necessary within this policy class, so the scaling is Theta(varepsilon-1/α) for suffix-only policies. Whether recurrent or propagating cache summaries can beat this scaling is left open. An explicit block-Markov scheme achieves the upper bound; its rate-of-convergence exponent matches the converse under additional forward-decay and regularity hypotheses (not implied by truncation sensitivity alone), and differs by a factor of two otherwise. Empirically, the polynomial law predicts the degradation curves of concrete cache policies: recency-based eviction (sliding, sink-plus-recent) suppresses distortion by roughly two orders of magnitude over random retention at equal budget, with a power-law decay in the budget.