# A governance horizon for ethical-use constraints in open-weight AI models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.24383 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.24383/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [Datasheets for Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.09010/) (2018)
- [Model Cards for Model Reporting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.03993/) (2018)
- [TIES-Merging: Resolving Interference When Merging Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01708/) (2023)
- [Improving Reproducibility in Machine Learning Research (A Report from the NeurIPS 2019 Reproducibility Program)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.12206/) (2020)
- [Arcee's MergeKit: A Toolkit for Merging Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13257/) (2024)
- [Data Cards: Purposeful and Transparent Dataset Documentation for Responsible AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01075/) (2022)
- [Foundation Models and Fair Use](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15715/) (2023)
- [Demystifying the Draft EU Artificial Intelligence Act](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03721/) (2021)
- [The Foundation Model Transparency Index](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.12941/) (2023)
- [The Gradient of Generative AI Release: Methods and Considerations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04844/) (2023)
- [Talkin' 'Bout AI Generation: Copyright and the Generative-AI Supply Chain](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.08133/) (2023)
- [Ecosystem Graphs: The Social Footprint of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15772/) (2023)
- [Open-Sourcing Highly Capable Foundation Models: An evaluation of risks, benefits, and alternative methods for pursuing open-source objectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.09227/) (2023)
- [Navigating Dataset Documentations in AI: A Large-Scale Analysis of Dataset Cards on Hugging Face](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.13822/) (2024)
- [The Model Openness Framework: Promoting Completeness and Openness for Reproducibility, Transparency, and Usability in Artificial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13784/) (2024)
- [Data Authenticity, Consent, & Provenance for AI are all broken: what will it take to fix them?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.12691/) (2024)
- [Anatomy of a Machine Learning Ecosystem: 2 Million Models on Hugging Face](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06811/) (2025)
- [Moderating Model Marketplaces: Platform Governance Puzzles for AI Intermediaries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12573/) (2023)
- [PeaTMOSS: A Dataset and Initial Analysis of Pre-Trained Models in Open-Source Software](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00699/) (2024)
- [On the Standardization of Behavioral Use Clauses and Their Adoption for Responsible Licensing of AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05979/) (2024)
- [An Empirical Analysis of Machine Learning Model and Dataset Documentation, Supply Chain, and Licensing Challenges on Hugging Face](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.04484/) (2025)
- [Permissive-Washing in the Open AI Supply Chain: A Large-Scale Audit of License Integrity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.08816/) (2026)
- [From Hugging Face to GitHub: Tracing License Drift in the Open-Source AI Ecosystem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.09873/) (2025)
- [Hidden Licensing Risks in the LLMware Ecosystem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10758/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Ethical constraints on open-weight AI models are both a reflection of societal concerns and a foundation for AI governance policy. They are expected to propagate to downstream derivatives while implemented as voluntary metadata disclosures that must be restated at each generation of reuse. We audit 2,142,823 model repositories on Hugging Face Hub to test whether this disclosure-based governance infrastructure can sustain traceability across deep model lineages. Restriction evidence decays with a half-life of 1.31 derivation steps (R2=0.98), and beyond seven downstream generations at least 80% of descendant models lack sufficient public evidence for a governance determination, a depth boundary we formalize as the governance horizon. Platform-level interventions to restore missing licence metadata reveal that policy design (not enforcement alone) is the binding factor: inheritance-only designs require near-complete enforcement to move the horizon, whereas a mandatory-declaration design that explicitly resolves orphan lineage components shifts the horizon already at moderate enforcement. The structural bottleneck is lineages with no inheritable upstream intent: such orphan components remain undecidable under any inheritance-only policy regardless of enforcement rate, and unresolved upstream nodes additionally create direct downstream undecidability bottlenecks that inheritance rules alone cannot recover. Comparison with PyPI, where governance signals are carried by explicit machine-readable declarations, corroborates that the collapse is topology-specific to open-weight derivation rather than inherent to open ecosystems. These results establish that disclosure-based governance has a shallow, structurally determined reach in open-weight AI, and that achieving deep supply-chain accountability requires provenance mechanisms propagating governance signals through derivation itself.