# Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23909 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.23909/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [BoolQ: Exploring the Surprising Difficulty of Natural Yes/No Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10044/) (2019)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Crowdsourcing Multiple Choice Science Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06209/) (2017)
- [AGIEval: A Human-Centric Benchmark for Evaluating Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.06364/) (2023)
- [Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.09724/) (2024)
- [ConfTuner: Training Large Language Models to Express Their Confidence Verbally](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.18847/) (2025)
- [Restoring Calibration for Aligned Large Language Models: A Calibration-Aware Fine-Tuning Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.01997/) (2025)
- [Understanding Model Calibration -- A gentle introduction and visual exploration of calibration and the expected calibration error (ECE)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19047/) (2025)
- [Do Language Models Mirror Human Confidence? Exploring Psychological Insights to Address Overconfidence in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00582/) (2025)
- [The Confidence Paradox: Can LLM Know When It's Wrong](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.23464/) (2025)
- [GRACE: A Granular Benchmark for Evaluating Model Calibration against Human Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.19684/) (2025)
- [Do LLMs Implicitly Determine the Suitable Text Difficulty for Users?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14453/) (2024)
- [The Evolving Usage of GenAI by Computing Students](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16453/) (2024)
- [Can LLMs Estimate Cognitive Complexity of Reading Comprehension Items?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.25064/) (2025)
- [Toward Trustworthy Difficulty Assessments: Large Language Models as Judges in Programming and Synthetic Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.18597/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Neither Parallel Nor Sequential: How DiffusionGemma Actually Commits Tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.14620/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds accuracy, on average. Importantly, however, this tendency is moderated by a powerful hard-easy effect, wherein overconfidence is greatest on difficult tests; by contrast, easy tests actually show substantial underconfidence. We develop LifeEval, a test for evaluating model calibration across levels of difficulty.