# AI-Driven Alpha Decay: Algorithmic Homogenization, Reflexive Signal Erosion, and the Paradox of Intelligent Markets

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23905 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.23905/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Performative Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06673/) (2020)
- [Algorithmic Monoculture and Social Welfare](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.05853/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We show that AI-driven investment strategies are inherently self-defeating at scale. As AI adoption rises, three mutually reinforcing channels -- signal crowding, performative signal erosion, and Red Queen competition -- compress excess returns. We derive the alpha half-life h(φ) = ln 2/[θ + δ(φ)], where θ is the natural mean-reversion rate and δ(φ) = Nφρ a/λ(φ) is the AI-accelerated decay component, which is convex-decreasing in adoption. At current adoption levels (φ ≈ 0.7, ρ ≈ 0.6), the model implies signal half-lives of 18 months versus 5-7 years pre-AI. We establish four theoretical results. First, the alpha half-life theorem: signal lifespans are convex-decreasing in AI adoption. Second, a signal extinction cascade: beyond a critical threshold φ^*, the decay of one signal class triggers accelerated competition for remaining signals. Third, a Red Queen impossibility: in the monoculture equilibrium, net alpha is identically zero despite heavy AI investment. Fourth, a fragility-efficiency tradeoff: the adoption level maximizing price discovery strictly exceeds the level minimizing systemic fragility. Empirical validation calibrates portfolio convergence to SEC Form 13F filing patterns (99.5 million holdings, 2013-2024), documenting that simulated institutional portfolio convergence increases by 42% over the sample period. We examine simulated hedge fund return dynamics showing declining cross-sectional dispersion among AI-adopting funds, and simulate the 2010 Flash Crash to illustrate fragility consequences.