# LLMs as Noisy Channels: A Shannon Perspective on Model Capacity and Scaling Laws

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23901 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.23901/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [QLoRA: Efficient Finetuning of Quantized LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14314/) (2023)
- [Pointer Sentinel Mixture Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.07843/) (2016)
- [The Pile: An 800GB Dataset of Diverse Text for Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.00027/) (2020)
- [GPTQ: Accurate Post-Training Quantization for Generative Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17323/) (2022)
- [Pythia: A Suite for Analyzing Large Language Models Across Training and Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01373/) (2023)
- [DeepSeek-V4: Towards Highly Efficient Million-Token Context Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19348/) (2026)
- [Deep Learning and the Information Bottleneck Principle](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.02406/) (2015)
- [Opening the Black Box of Deep Neural Networks via Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.00810/) (2017)
- [Kimi K2.5: Visual Agentic Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02276/) (2026)
- [Overtrained Language Models Are Harder to Fine-Tune](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19206/) (2025)
- [Low-Bit Quantization Favors Undertrained LLMs: Scaling Laws for Quantized LLMs with 100T Training Tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.17691/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Existing scaling laws for Large Language Models (LLMs), predominantly monotonic power laws, fail to explain emerging non-monotonic phenomena such as catastrophic overtraining and quantization-induced degradation, where performance deteriorates despite increased compute. We propose the Shannon Scaling Law, a unified theoretical framework that models LLM training as information transmission over a noisy channel, grounded in the Shannon-Hartley theorem. By mapping model parameters to channel bandwidth and training tokens to signal power, our formulation explicitly captures the interaction between learning signal and intrinsic noise. This perspective reveals a fundamental Shannon capacity for LLMs: scaling model size or data without preserving a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) inevitably amplifies noise, inducing a transition from monotonic improvement to U-shaped performance degradation. We validate our theory through experiments on Pythia and OLMo2 under perturbations, including Gaussian noise, quantization and supervised fine-tuning on math, QA and code tasks. The Shannon Scaling Law consistently outperforms classical scaling laws and recent perturbation-aware laws, achieving strong R2 scores and accurately capturing loss basins missed by prior approaches. It also extrapolates: fitted on ≤6.9B Pythia models with ≤180B tokens, it predicts the unseen 12B model up to 307B tokens at pooled R2=0.847, while monotonic baselines collapse.