# Robust OT-Guided Generative Residual Domain Adaptation for Bike-Sharing Demand Prediction under Temporal Domain Shift

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23115 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.23115/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 16 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Domain-Adversarial Training of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.07818/) (2015)
- [Sinkhorn Distances: Lightspeed Computation of Optimal Transportation Distances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1306.0895/) (2013)
- [Learning Transferable Features with Deep Adaptation Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.02791/) (2015)
- [Deep CORAL: Correlation Alignment for Deep Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.01719/) (2016)
- [Computational Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.00567/) (2018)
- [Optimal Transport for Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1507.00504/) (2015)
- [Joint Distribution Optimal Transportation for Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08848/) (2017)
- [Outlier-Robust Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07363/) (2020)
- [Inference via robust optimal transportation: theory and methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.06297/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Bike-sharing models trained on historical station-hour data may degrade when deployed in later years because travel patterns change over time. This paper studies March Citi Bike demand prediction from 2021 to 2026 as a temporal domain adaptation problem and proposes Gen-ROTDA, a robust optimal transport-guided residual domain adaptation framework. The method fits a target-domain station-time anchor with a small labeled target subset, transfers residual rather than raw demand, applies a deterministic label-preserving residual feature generator, and trims high-cost transport matches before training the final residual predictor. Experiments compare Gen-ROTDA with anchor-only, source-only, target-only, fine-tuning, MMD adaptation, Sinkhorn OTDA, ROTDA, and Gen-OTDA. Gen-ROTDA achieves the lowest MAE on the main 2025 to 2026 task and is the best OT-family method on average across multi-year tasks, although fine-tuning and MMD adaptation remain strong overall baselines. Under abnormal target-unlabeled records, Gen-ROTDA is much more stable than non-robust OT variants, suggesting that robust transport is useful for noisy temporal transfer in bike-sharing demand prediction.