# From Correlation to Cause: A Five-Stage Methodology for Feature Analysis in Transformer Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.22462 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.22462/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Circuits and mechanistic analysis, one of 13 directions in Mechanistic interpretability.
- Builds on 13 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Mechanistic interpretability / [Circuits and mechanistic analysis](https://mlsanity.com/mechinterp/circuits-and-mechanistic-analysis/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05262/) (2022)
- [Sparse Autoencoders Find Highly Interpretable Features in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.08600/) (2023)
- [Representation Engineering: A Top-Down Approach to AI Transparency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01405/) (2023)
- [Interpretability in the Wild: a Circuit for Indirect Object Identification in GPT-2 small](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.00593/) (2022)
- [Refusal in Language Models Is Mediated by a Single Direction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11717/) (2024)
- [Towards Automated Circuit Discovery for Mechanistic Interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14997/) (2023)
- [What you can cram into a single vector: Probing sentence embeddings for linguistic properties](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.01070/) (2018)
- [Sparse Feature Circuits: Discovering and Editing Interpretable Causal Graphs in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.19647/) (2024)
- [Patchscopes: A Unifying Framework for Inspecting Hidden Representations of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06102/) (2024)
- [Improving Dictionary Learning with Gated Sparse Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.16014/) (2024)
- [SelfIE: Self-Interpretation of Large Language Model Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.10949/) (2024)
- [Activation Oracles: Training and Evaluating LLMs as General-Purpose Activation Explainers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.15674/) (2025)
- [LatentQA: Teaching LLMs to Decode Activations Into Natural Language](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.08686/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [SFT Leaves a Reproducible Signature in Activation Geometry: Calibrating Post-Training Interpretability Against Run-to-Run Noise](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.17093/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We propose a five-stage methodology for causal feature analysis in transformer language models (probe design, feature extraction, causal validation, robustness testing, and deployment integration) and demonstrate it end-to-end on GPT-2 small performing the Indirect Object Identification (IOI) task. Activation patching recovers the canonical IOI circuit (layer-9 head 9 alone gives recovery +1.02). A sparse autoencoder recovers per-name selective features with effect sizes of 30 to 50 activation units. Causal validation finds these features specifically but only partially causal: ablating fifteen of them leaves the model accurate on 98% of prompts. Two NLA-inspired evaluations strengthen this picture: the fifteen selective features explain only 31% of activation variance versus the SAE's 99.7%, and selectivity ratio anticorrelates with causal force (r = -0.56). Robustness testing under three distribution shifts finds that the circuit transfers cleanly but feature ablation effects degrade substantially, exposing a gap between detection robustness and causal robustness. A cost-based deployment evaluation (assumed 50/FN, 0.42/FP, 2% error rate) finds an optimal monitor configuration yielding 8.96 per 1000 queries against a 1000 baseline, a 99.1% saving. Optimal composition strategy varies with cost ratio and base rate. The conjunction of stages produces findings no single stage would.