# PeakFocus: Bridging Peak Localization and Intensity Regression via a Unified Multi-Scale Framework for Electricity Load Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21550 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.21550/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Feature Pyramid Networks for Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.03144/) (2016)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [SCINet: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09305/) (2021)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [Spatial-Temporal Identity: A Simple yet Effective Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05233/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10240/) (2020)
- [Exploring Progress in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Comprehensive Benchmarking and Heterogeneity Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06119/) (2023)
- [CycleNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Modeling Periodic Patterns](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18479/) (2024)
- [TimeFilter: Patch-Specific Spatial-Temporal Graph Filtration for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13041/) (2025)
- [Towards Spatio-Temporal Aware Traffic Time Series Forecasting--Full Version](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15737/) (2022)
- [SegRNN: Segment Recurrent Neural Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11200/) (2023)
- [On the Role of Attention Masks and LayerNorm in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18781/) (2024)
- [Multi-Scale Adaptive Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.04828/) (2022)
- [A Unified Replay-based Continuous Learning Framework for Spatio-Temporal Prediction on Streaming Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14999/) (2024)
- [Adaptive Multi-Scale Decomposition Framework for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03751/) (2024)
- [Unlocking the Power of LSTM for Long Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.10006/) (2024)
- [Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Calibrated Language Models with Privileged Knowledge Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.02138/) (2025)
- [Robust and Explainable Autoencoders for Unsupervised Time Series Outlier Detection---Extended Version](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03341/) (2022)
- [Daily peak electrical load forecasting with a multi-resolution approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.04492/) (2021)
- [Electrical peak demand forecasting- A review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.01393/) (2021)
- [Unlocking the Potential of Deep Learning in Peak-Hour Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01597/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Electricity load peak forecasting (ELPF), simultaneously predicting peak timing and intensity, is a prerequisite for effective grid scheduling and risk management. However, existing methods face three limitations. First, they adopt a two-stage predict-then-locate paradigm, which severs the link between temporal localization and intensity regression. Second, they still struggle with the multi-scale representation conflict, leading to peak misjudgment and timing misalignment. Third, the lack of explicit peak timing context during intensity regression causes intensity smoothing because predictions are dominated by global smoothing trends. To address these limitations, we propose PeakFocus, a unified framework for ELPF. (i) A Unified Peak-Aware Pipeline (UPAP) utilizes a triple hybrid loss to jointly supervise temporal localization and intensity regression, alongside a tolerance-based evaluation protocol. (ii) A Multi-Scale Mixing Peak Locator (MSM-PL) exploits coarse-grained features to mitigate peak misjudgment caused by local fluctuations, and injects them into fine-grained features via a cascade mechanism to resolve timing misalignment. (iii) A Location-Aware Decoder (LAD) injects peak timing context into the intensity regression process, providing explicit guidance to counteract intensity smoothing and improve peak intensity estimation. Extensive experiments on the public Electricity (ELC) dataset and our industrial-scale World Large-scale Electricity Load (WLEL) dataset show that PeakFocus outperforms baselines in both timing precision and intensity estimation.