# Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity Forecasting: Per-Cell Dispersion Estimation and Tail Risk Assessment

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21437 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.21437/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 14 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Intensity-Free Learning of Temporal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12127/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from Central Asia (2010-2024), where a likelihood-ratio test with boundary correction strongly rejects the Poisson hypothesis (p < 10^{-179}). The main contribution of this work is the EarthquakeNet architecture, which provides an endogenous per-cell estimate of the overdispersion parameter alpha via a neural network (spatial embeddings + MLP), without explicit spatial covariance specification. In contrast to existing negative binomial regression approaches in seismological forecasting, which typically assume a single global alpha, the proposed per-cell formulation allows the model to identify spatial heterogeneity in seismic clustering and to construct probabilistic risk-aware alerts via quantiles of the predicted distribution. A walk-forward evaluation (2018-2023) over four systems shows an 8.6 percent reduction in mean pinball deviation (MPD) relative to a negative binomial GLM baseline. The strongest improvements are observed in the tail regime (Y >= 5), where the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of the proposed model is 12.5 percent lower than that of the baseline, indicating improved calibration in extreme-event forecasting.