# Deep Learning Surrogates for Emulating Stochastic Climate Tipping Dynamics

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.20580 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.20580/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 30 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 30)

- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08424/) (2023)
- [Soft-DTW: a Differentiable Loss Function for Time-Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01541/) (2017)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [A Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Network for Time Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02971/) (2017)
- [Discrete Graph Structure Learning for Forecasting Multiple Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06861/) (2021)
- [Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Prediction: Benchmark and Solution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14917/) (2021)
- [SiMBA: Simplified Mamba-Based Architecture for Vision and Multivariate Time series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.15360/) (2024)
- [SegRNN: Segment Recurrent Neural Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11200/) (2023)
- [Scalable Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.06520/) (2022)
- [Causal Discovery and Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments with State-Space Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10857/) (2019)
- [Will Artificial Intelligence supersede Earth System and Climate Models?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.09126/) (2021)
- [Learning the Evolutionary and Multi-scale Graph Structure for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13816/) (2022)
- [Using Machine Learning to Anticipate Tipping Points and Extrapolate to Post-Tipping Dynamics of Non-Stationary Dynamical Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.00521/) (2022)
- [Reconstructing regime-dependent causal relationships from observational time series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.00267/) (2020)
- [Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08011/) (2023)
- [Dynamic Causal Explanation Based Diffusion-Variational Graph Neural Network for Spatio-temporal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.09703/) (2023)
- [Extrapolating tipping points and simulating non-stationary dynamics of complex systems using efficient machine learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06283/) (2023)
- [Inferring the dynamics of oscillatory systems using recurrent neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.03026/) (2019)
- [A Generative Adversarial Network for Climate Tipping Point Discovery (TIP-GAN)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.10274/) (2023)
- [Adaptive Dependency Learning Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03903/) (2023)
- [Using Artificial Intelligence to aid Scientific Discovery of Climate Tipping Points](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06852/) (2023)
- [Bridging Idealized and Operational Models: An Explainable AI Framework for Earth System Emulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13030/) (2025)
- [Deep learning for predicting the occurrence of tipping points](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.18693/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This work explores a dynamics-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) as a data-driven surrogate for computationally intensive Earth system simulations. Focusing on multivariate time series describing global ocean transport, we demonstrate the surrogate's ability to forecast tip events across thousands of time steps. The data involve up to 21 non-stationary time series in addition to static covariates describing free parameters and initial conditions. Modifications to the architecture and objective function yield a surrogate that anticipates the timing of Atlantic and Pacific collapses to high fidelity and captures the stochastic uncertainty in transition timing across ensemble predictions. The learned surrogate achieves a 465x computational speedup over the numerical simulator while maintaining differentiability with respect to parameters and initial conditions.