# Can LLMs Emulate Human Belief Dynamics?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18781 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.18781/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Gemma 3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19786/) (2025)
- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.13548/) (2023)
- [Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.06899/) (2022)
- [Simulating Opinion Dynamics with Networks of LLM-based Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.09618/) (2023)
- [Hidden Persuaders: LLMs' Political Leaning and Their Influence on Voters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.24190/) (2024)
- [When Truth Is Overridden: Uncovering the Internal Origins of Sycophancy in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.02087/) (2025)
- [Beyond Demographics: Aligning Role-playing LLM-based Agents Using Human Belief Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.17232/) (2024)
- [How Far are LLMs from Being Our Digital Twins? A Benchmark for Persona-Based Behavior Chain Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14642/) (2025)
- [Simulating Rumor Spreading in Social Networks using LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01450/) (2025)
- [Epistemic Alignment: A Mediating Framework for User-LLM Knowledge Delivery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.01205/) (2025)
- [Persona-Assigned Large Language Models Exhibit Human-Like Motivated Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20020/) (2025)
- [Replicating Human Motivated Reasoning Studies with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.16130/) (2026)
- [Measuring Belief Dynamics on Twitter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.11947/) (2022)
- [Modeling Motivated Reasoning in Law: Evaluating Strategic Role Conditioning in LLM Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.00529/) (2025)
- [Using a Cognitive Network Model of Moral and Social Beliefs to Explain Belief Change](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.10751/) (2021)
- [Exploring the Role of Randomization on Belief Rigidity in Online Social Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01820/) (2024)
- [Personalized Large Language Models Can Increase the Belief Accuracy of Social Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06153/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Can LLMs simulate how humans form and change beliefs in social networks? We put this to the test by replicating an established study on belief dynamics, evaluating 12 LLMs across multiple model families and parameter sizes. The answer is a clear no, and in systematic ways. LLMs fail to capture initial human belief distributions and tend to be overall more conformist than humans, shifting their responses to align with those around them. They also take a nuanced approach to emulating human homophilic tendencies within networks. Our findings carry a double payoff: they highlight fundamental properties of LLM behavior, and they raise a sharp warning against deploying LLMs as human proxies in social simulations.