# Agentic Chunking and Bayesian De-chunking of AI Generated Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A Model of the Thucydides Trap

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17903 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.17903/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Medical and scientific domain agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 3 of its 13 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Medical and scientific domain agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/medical-and-scientific-domain-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Causal Autoencoder-like Generation of Feedback Fuzzy Cognitive Maps with an LLM Agent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25593/) (2025)
- [Beyond DAGs: Modeling Causal Feedback with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.11247/) (2019)
- [The Agentic Leash: Extracting Causal Feedback Fuzzy Cognitive Maps with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.00097/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Converting Sequenced Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Causal Virtual Worlds with Large Video Generators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.14985/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We automatically generate feedback causal fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) from text by teaching large-language-model agents to break the text into overlapping chunks of text. Convex mixing of these chunk FCMs gives a representative cyclic FCM knowledge graph. The text chunks can have different levels of overlap. The chunk FCMs still mix to form a new FCM causal knowledge graph. The mixing technique scales because it uses light computation with sparse causal chunk matrices. The mixing structure allows an operator-level type of Bayesian inference that produces "de-chunked" or posterior-like FCMs from the mixed FCM. These de-chunked FCMs are useful in their own right and allow further iterations of Bayesian updating. We demonstrate these mixing techniques on the essay text of Allison's "Thucydides Trap" model of conflict between a dominant power such as the United States and a rising power such as China. The FCM dynamical systems predict outcomes as they equilibrate to fixed-point or limit-cycle attractors. Seven out of 8 FCM knowledge graphs predicted a type of war when we stimulated them by turning on and keeping on the concept node that stands for the rising power's ambition and entitlement. Gemini 3.1 LLMs served as the chunking AI agents.