# Capturing LLM Capabilities via Evidence-Calibrated Query Clustering

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17110 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.17110/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 44 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Gemini 1.5: Unlocking multimodal understanding across millions of tokens of context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05530/) (2024)
- [MMBench: Is Your Multi-modal Model an All-around Player?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06281/) (2023)
- [MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01574/) (2024)
- [SuperGLUE: A Stickier Benchmark for General-Purpose Language Understanding Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.00537/) (2019)
- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04132/) (2024)
- [AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13131/) (2025)
- [FrugalGPT: How to Use Large Language Models While Reducing Cost and Improving Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05176/) (2023)
- [RouteLLM: Learning to Route LLMs with Preference Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.18665/) (2024)
- [MathVerse: Does Your Multi-modal LLM Truly See the Diagrams in Visual Math Problems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14624/) (2024)
- [C-Pack: Packed Resources For General Chinese Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07597/) (2023)
- [LLM-Blender: Ensembling Large Language Models with Pairwise Ranking and Generative Fusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02561/) (2023)
- [Hybrid LLM: Cost-Efficient and Quality-Aware Query Routing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14618/) (2024)
- [Mathematical Capabilities of ChatGPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13867/) (2023)
- [RouterBench: A Benchmark for Multi-LLM Routing System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.12031/) (2024)
- [MMT-Bench: A Comprehensive Multimodal Benchmark for Evaluating Large Vision-Language Models Towards Multitask AGI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.16006/) (2024)
- [What can Large Language Models do in chemistry? A comprehensive benchmark on eight tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18365/) (2023)
- [Large Language Model Routing with Benchmark Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15789/) (2023)
- [GraphRouter: A Graph-based Router for LLM Selections](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.03834/) (2024)
- [Routing to the Expert: Efficient Reward-guided Ensemble of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08692/) (2023)
- [Large Language Model Cascades with Mixture of Thoughts Representations for Cost-efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03094/) (2023)
- [AutoMix: Automatically Mixing Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.12963/) (2023)
- [TensorOpera Router: A Multi-Model Router for Efficient LLM Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.12320/) (2024)
- [MixLLM: Dynamic Routing in Mixed Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18482/) (2025)
- [Fusing Models with Complementary Expertise](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01542/) (2023)
- [LLM as Dataset Analyst: Subpopulation Structure Discovery with Large Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.02363/) (2024)
- [IRT-Router: Effective and Interpretable Multi-LLM Routing via Item Response Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01048/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Query clustering organizes queries into groups that reflect shared latent capability demands, enabling capability-aware LLM evaluation. Existing clustering methods, which primarily rely on semantic taxonomies or embeddings, often fail to capture such latent capability requirements due to a misalignment between surface-level semantics and actual model performance. We propose ECC, an algorithm that calibrates prior semantic embeddings using limited posterior model comparisons to bridge the gap between surface-level semantics and latent capability requirements. ECC characterizes each cluster through a capability profile parameterized by a Bradley-Terry model and uses trainable mixture weights to accommodate queries with mixed capability demands, jointly learning a flexible, capability-aware clustering structure that supports query-specific inference of LLM capabilities. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that ECC significantly improves LLM capability ranking quality, outperforming human-labeled and embedding-based baselines by an average of 17.64 and 18.02 percentage points, respectively, and proves effective in downstream tasks such as query routing.