# ReTAMamba: Reliability-Aware Temporal Aggregation with Mamba for Irregular Clinical Time Series Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16380 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16380/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Time series forecasting with SSMs, one of 10 directions in State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba).
- Builds on 12 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 May 2026.

## Placed in

- State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba) / [Time series forecasting with SSMs](https://mlsanity.com/ssm/time-series-forecasting-with-ssms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01865/) (2016)
- [Multi-Time Attention Networks for Irregularly Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10318/) (2021)
- [Set Functions for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12064/) (2019)
- [Graph-Guided Network for Irregularly Sampled Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.05357/) (2021)
- [Learning to Diagnose with LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.03677/) (2015)
- [Interpolation-Prediction Networks for Irregularly Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.07782/) (2019)
- [Time Series as Images: Vision Transformer for Irregularly Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12799/) (2023)
- [Warpformer: A Multi-scale Modeling Approach for Irregular Clinical Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09368/) (2023)
- [Beyond Observations: Reconstruction Error-Guided Irregularly Sampled Time Series Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.06854/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Clinical time-series data are difficult to model with methods designed for regular sequences because they exhibit irregular sampling, frequent missing values, and heterogeneous observation patterns across variables. Existing approaches commonly use observation masks and time-gap information, but they do not continuously capture the decaying reliability of past observations or consistently organize multi-resolution information within a coherent temporal context during aggregation. To address these limitations, we propose Reliability-aware Temporal Aggregation with Mamba (ReTAMamba), which reconstructs clinical time series as time-variable token sequences, estimates observation reliability from missingness and elapsed time, and augments interval summaries with statistical descriptors. Chronological Weaving is used to integrate short- and long-term temporal information within a coherent temporal context, and a budgeted token router is applied to constrain sequence length while preserving informative summaries. Experiments on MIMIC-IV, eICU, and PhysioNet 2012 show that ReTAMamba consistently improves AUPRC over strong baselines, with average relative gains of 7.51%, 7.80%, and 10.15%, respectively. Cohort-level and patient-level analyses on eICU further showed that the learned mean decay for more dynamic signals, such as heart rate and blood pressure, was 24.3% larger than that for relatively static signals, such as laboratory test variables. These findings suggest that effective prediction in irregular clinical time series requires modeling not only what was measured, but also when and how it was observed, including information freshness and observation timeliness.