# LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16358 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16358/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [Gemma 3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19786/) (2025)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [LMSYS-Chat-1M: A Large-Scale Real-World LLM Conversation Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.11998/) (2023)
- [FrontierMath: A Benchmark for Evaluating Advanced Mathematical Reasoning in AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04872/) (2024)
- [Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16964/) (2024)
- [DynaMath: A Dynamic Visual Benchmark for Evaluating Mathematical Reasoning Robustness of Vision Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.00836/) (2024)
- [ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19839/) (2024)
- [Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18563/) (2024)
- [VisIT-Bench: A Benchmark for Vision-Language Instruction Following Inspired by Real-World Use](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.06595/) (2023)
- [From News to Forecast: Integrating Event Analysis in LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting with Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17515/) (2024)
- [Language Models Still Struggle to Zero-shot Reason about Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11757/) (2024)
- [Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.18959/) (2024)
- [NPHardEval: Dynamic Benchmark on Reasoning Ability of Large Language Models via Complexity Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14890/) (2023)
- [Time-MMD: Multi-Domain Multimodal Dataset for Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08627/) (2024)
- [MTBench: A Multimodal Time Series Benchmark for Temporal Reasoning and Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16858/) (2025)
- [LiveCodeBench Pro: How Do Olympiad Medalists Judge LLMs in Competitive Programming?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.11928/) (2025)
- [LLM-as-a-Prophet: Understanding Predictive Intelligence with Prophet Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17638/) (2025)
- [AI-Trader: Benchmarking Autonomous Agents in Real-Time Financial Markets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.10971/) (2025)
- [Dynamic Multimodal Evaluation with Flexible Complexity by Vision-Language Bootstrapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08695/) (2024)
- [Time Travel is Cheating: Going Live with DeepFund for Real-Time Fund Investment Benchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11065/) (2025)
- [TSRBench: A Comprehensive Multi-task Multi-modal Time Series Reasoning Benchmark for Generalist Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.18744/) (2026)
- [Inferring Events from Time Series using Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14190/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Dr-CiK: A Benchmark testing Deep Research for Context-Aided Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27904/) (2026)
- [SEER: Self-Evolving Event Reasoning and Retrieval for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.04109/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to real-world forecasting tasks, yet evaluating their true predictive capability remains compromised by pre-training data contamination and look-ahead leakage in automated search. Existing benchmarks either rely on static contexts, restrict evaluations to narrow environments, or fail to audit auxiliary textual events for future information leakage. To establish a rigorous evaluation paradigm, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including trend, event, and time series forecasting. LEAF couples a recursive retrieval agent system with dual-agent cross-validation to gather comprehensive, relevant, and temporally aligned auxiliary context. A comprehensive audit across 500 tasks by 47 domain specialists demonstrates that our pipeline suppresses future information leakage from 8.6% to 1.6%. Across extensive evaluations of 16 frontier proprietary and open-weight models on our benchmark, we show that LLMs effectively extract signals from verified events to boost trend and event forecasting.