# Deterministic Event-Graph Substrates as World Models for Counterfactual Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.15967 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.15967/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in World models for language agents, one of 11 directions in World models.
- Builds on 3 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 May 2026.

## Placed in

- World models / [World models for language agents](https://mlsanity.com/wm/world-models-for-language-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Mastering Diverse Domains through World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.04104/) (2023)
- [V-JEPA 2: Self-Supervised Video Models Enable Understanding, Prediction and Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09985/) (2025)
- [Compositional Physical Reasoning of Objects and Events from Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.02687/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.10934/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We study event-graph substrates: a class of world models that represent agent state as an append-only log of typed RDF triples and answer counterfactual queries by forking the log under a structured intervention vocabulary. Substrates are inspectable at the triple level, support exact counterfactuals, and transfer across domains without learned components. We formalize the class, prove a duality between explanatory and counterfactual queries that reduces both to the same causal-ancestor traversal, and evaluate a 1,400-line CLEVRER-DSL interpreter atop a domain-agnostic substrate runtime at full CLEVRER validation scale (n=75,618). The substrate exceeds the NS-DR symbolic oracle on all four per-question categories (by 9.89, 20.26, 17.65, and 0.80 percentage points), and exceeds the parametric ALOE baseline on descriptive and explanatory while lagging on predictive and counterfactual. We also introduce twin-EventLog, a 500-specification Park-canonical Smallville counterfactual benchmark on which the substrate exceeds Llama-3.1-8B with full context by 18.80 points joint accuracy.