# TopoPrimer: The Missing Topological Context in Forecasting Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.15035 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.15035/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Deep Factors for Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12417/) (2019)
- [Position: Topological Deep Learning is the New Frontier for Relational Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.08871/) (2024)
- [Topological Attention for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.09031/) (2021)
- [TopoCL: Topological Contrastive Learning for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.02924/) (2025)
- [Time-Series Forecasting via Topological Information Supervised Framework with Efficient Topological Feature Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.23757/) (2025)
- [Dynamic Sheaf Diffusion Networks with Adaptive Local Structure for Heterogeneous Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.11275/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce TopoPrimer, a framework that makes the global topological structure of the series population an explicit input to any forecasting model. TopoPrimer improves accuracy across diverse domains, stabilizes forecasts under seasonal demand spikes, and closes the cold-start gap. Precomputed once per domain via persistent homology and spectral sheaf coordinates, TopoPrimer deploys per token for fully-trained models and as a lightweight adapter for pre-trained backbones. Of these two components, sheaf coordinates are the primary accuracy driver. Across four public benchmarks on Chronos and TimesFM, TopoPrimer consistently improves forecasting accuracy, with gains of up to 7.3% MSE on ECL. The topology advantage persists with near-identical magnitude across zero-shot and fine-tuned backbones, suggesting topology and per-series training capture complementary signals. The gains are most pronounced in difficult regimes. Under peak seasonal demand, classical and zero-shot models degrade by up to 50%, while TopoPrimer stays within 10%. At cold start with no item history, TopoPrimer reduces MAE by 27% over a topology-free baseline.