# MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14606 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14606/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Time series forecasting with SSMs, one of 10 directions in State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba).
- Builds on 15 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 May 2026.

## Placed in

- State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba) / [Time series forecasting with SSMs](https://mlsanity.com/ssm/time-series-forecasting-with-ssms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03458/) (2017)
- [Swin-UMamba: Mamba-based UNet with ImageNet-based pretraining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03302/) (2024)
- [Earthformer: Exploring Space-Time Transformers for Earth System Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05833/) (2022)
- [DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06734/) (2023)
- [CasCast: Skillful High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasting via Cascaded Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04290/) (2024)
- [AA-TransUNet: Attention Augmented TransUNet For Nowcasting Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.04996/) (2022)
- [Fourier Amplitude and Correlation Loss: Beyond Using L2 Loss for Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.23159/) (2024)
- [WeatherGen: A Unified Diverse Weather Generator for LiDAR Point Clouds via Spider Mamba Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13561/) (2025)
- [WaveC2R: Wavelet-Driven Coarse-to-Refined Hierarchical Learning for Radar Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.17558/) (2025)
- [Extreme Precipitation Nowcasting using Multi-Task Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.14103/) (2024)
- [SimCast: Enhancing Precipitation Nowcasting with Short-to-Long Term Knowledge Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.07953/) (2025)
- [SynCast: Synergizing Contradictions in Precipitation Nowcasting via Diffusion Sequential Preference Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.21847/) (2025)
- [How Effective Are Time-Series Models for Precipitation Nowcasting? A Comprehensive Benchmark for GNSS-based Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25263/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate precipitation nowcasting over extended horizons (0-3 hours) is essential for disaster mitigation and operational decision-making, yet remains a critical challenge in the field. Existing deterministic approaches are predominantly constrained to shorter prediction windows (0-2 hours), exhibiting severe performance degradation beyond 90 minutes owing to their inherent difficulty in capturing long-range spatiotemporal dependencies from radar-derived observations. To address these fundamental limitations, we propose MambaRain, a novel multi-scale encoder-decoder architecture that synergistically integrates Mamba's linear-complexity long-range temporal modeling with self-attention mechanisms for explicit spatial correlation capture. The core innovation lies in a hybrid design paradigm wherein Mamba blocks leverage selective state space mechanisms to model global temporal dynamics across extended sequences with computational efficiency, while self-attention modules explicitly characterize spatial correlations within precipitation fields - a capability inherently absent in Mamba's sequential processing paradigm. This complementary synergy enables comprehensive spatiotemporal representation learning, effectively extending the viable forecasting horizon to 2-3 hours with substantial accuracy improvements. Furthermore, we introduce a spectral loss formulation to mitigate blurring artifacts characteristic of chaotic precipitation systems, thereby preserving fine-scale motion details critical for nowcasting accuracy. Experimental validation demonstrates that MambaRain substantially outperforms existing deterministic methodologies in 0-3 hour nowcasting tasks, with particularly pronounced performance gains in the challenging 2-3 hour prediction range.