# Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Diffusion Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14570 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14570/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Discrete and text diffusion, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 39 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Discrete and text diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/discrete-and-text-diffusion/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.05232/) (2023)
- [Don't Give Me the Details, Just the Summary! Topic-Aware Convolutional Neural Networks for Extreme Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.08745/) (2018)
- [COMET: A Neural Framework for MT Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09025/) (2020)
- [Large Language Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.09992/) (2025)
- [Simple and Effective Masked Diffusion Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07524/) (2024)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [CoQA: A Conversational Question Answering Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.07042/) (2018)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [Dream 7B: Diffusion Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15487/) (2025)
- [SAMSum Corpus: A Human-annotated Dialogue Dataset for Abstractive Summarization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12237/) (2019)
- [Fast-dLLM: Training-free Acceleration of Diffusion LLM by Enabling KV Cache and Parallel Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22618/) (2025)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [AlignScore: Evaluating Factual Consistency with a Unified Alignment Function](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16739/) (2023)
- [LLaDA 1.5: Variance-Reduced Preference Optimization for Large Language Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19223/) (2025)
- [Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10608/) (2020)
- [LLaDA2.0: Scaling Up Diffusion Language Models to 100B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.15745/) (2025)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [Lookback Lens: Detecting and Mitigating Contextual Hallucinations in Large Language Models Using Only Attention Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07071/) (2024)
- [The Diffusion Duality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10892/) (2025)
- [LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07383/) (2023)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraph](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15627/) (2024)
- [Energy-Based Diffusion Language Models for Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21357/) (2024)
- [Unsupervised Real-Time Hallucination Detection based on the Internal States of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.06448/) (2024)
- [LUQ: Long-text Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20279/) (2024)
- [BayesDiff: Estimating Pixel-wise Uncertainty in Diffusion via Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11142/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Diffusion Models (LLDMs) are emerging as an alternative to autoregressive models, offering faster inference through higher parallelism. Similar to autoregressive LLMs, they remain prone to hallucinations, making reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) crucial for safe deployment. However, existing UQ methods are fundamentally misaligned with this new paradigm: they assume autoregressive factorization or use expensive repeated sampling, negating the efficiency of LLDMs. In this work, we present the first systematic study of UQ for LLDMs and propose lightweight, zero-shot uncertainty signals derived from the iterative denoising process, leveraging intermediate generations, token remasking dynamics, and denoising complexity. We further adapt a state-of-the-art UQ method to LLDMs by combining masked diffusion likelihoods with trajectory-based semantic dissimilarity. We prove that expected trajectory dissimilarity lower bounds the masked diffusion training objective, which motivates its usage as an uncertainty score. Comprehensive experiments across three tasks, eight datasets, and two models show that our method achieves a great cost-performance trade-off: it approaches the strongest sampling-based baselines while incurring up to 100x lower computational overhead. Our work demonstrates that LLDMs can deliver both fast inference and reliable hallucination detection simultaneously.