# Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14317 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14317/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 18 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 May 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6572/) (2014)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.06083/) (2017)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03838/) (2023)
- [Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03876/) (2023)
- [Diffusion Models for Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15636/) (2022)
- [Fast Diffusion-Based Counterfactuals for Shortcut Removal and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14223/) (2023)
- [Adversarial Observations in Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15942/) (2025)
- [FABLE: A Localized, Targeted Adversarial Attack on Weather Forecasting Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.12167/) (2025)
- [Adversarial Attacks on Downstream Weather Forecasting Models: Application to Tropical Cyclone Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10140/) (2025)
- [Forecasting Fails: Unveiling Evasion Attacks in Weather Prediction Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.08832/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Extreme precipitation causes severe societal and economic damage, and weather control has long been discussed as a potential mitigation strategy. However, to the best of our knowledge, perturbation-based interventions for weather control using data-driven weather forecasting models have not yet been explored. While adversarial attacks also generate perturbations that alter forecasts, they aim to exploit model artifacts and do not account for physical plausibility. In this paper, we propose a gradient-based guidance framework for precipitation-reduction interventions through diffusion sampling in diffusion-based weather forecasting models. Instead of directly perturbing atmospheric states, our method steers the diffusion sampling trajectory, enabling precipitation reduction while maintaining consistency with the atmospheric distribution. To assess physical plausibility, we evaluate from three perspectives: (i) vertical and variable-wise perturbation profiles, (ii) latent-space trajectory deviation, and (iii) cross-model transferability. Experiments on extreme precipitation events from WeatherBench2 demonstrate that our method achieves effective precipitation reduction while yielding more physically plausible interventions than adversarial perturbations.