# Fusion-fission forecasts when AI will shift to undesirable behavior

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14218 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14218/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 56 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05862/) (2022)
- [Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08073/) (2022)
- [Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03629/) (2022)
- [Pythia: A Suite for Analyzing Large Language Models Across Training and Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01373/) (2023)
- [Representation Engineering: A Top-Down Approach to AI Transparency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01405/) (2023)
- [Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03341/) (2023)
- [Refusal in Language Models Is Mediated by a Single Direction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11717/) (2024)
- [Red Teaming Language Models with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03286/) (2022)
- [In-context Learning and Induction Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.11895/) (2022)
- [Steering Language Models With Activation Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.10248/) (2023)
- [How Contextual are Contextualized Word Representations? Comparing the Geometry of BERT, ELMo, and GPT-2 Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.00512/) (2019)
- [Towards Automated Circuit Discovery for Mechanistic Interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14997/) (2023)
- [Sinkformers: Transformers with Doubly Stochastic Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.11773/) (2021)
- [Characterizing Delusional Spirals through Human-LLM Chat Logs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.16567/) (2026)
- [Clustering in Deep Stochastic Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21942/) (2026)
- [Jekyll-and-Hyde Tipping Point in an AI's Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.20980/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The key problem facing ChatGPT-like AI's use across society is that its behavior can shift, unnoticed, from desirable to undesirable -- encouraging self-harm, extremist acts, financial losses, or costly medical and military mistakes -- and no one can yet predict when. Shifts persist in even the newest AI models despite remarkable progress in AI modeling, post-training alignment and safeguards. Here we show that a vector generalization of fusion-fission group dynamics observed in living and active-matter systems drives -- and can forecast -- future shifts in the AI's behavior. The shift condition, which is also derivable mathematically, results from group-level competition between the conversation-so-far (C) and the desirable (B) and undesirable (D) basin dynamics which can be estimated in advance for a given application. It is neither model-specific nor driven by stochastic sampling. We validate it across six independent tests, including: 90 percent correct across seven AI models spanning two orders of magnitude in parameter count (124M-12B); production-scale persistence across ten frontier chatbots; and a priori time-stamped prediction eleven months before the Stanford 'Delusional Spirals' corpus appeared, and independently confirmed by that corpus of 207,443 human-AI exchanges. Because it sits architecturally below the current safety stack, the same formula provides a real-time warning signal that current alignment does not supply, portable across current and future ChatGPT-like AI architectures and instantiable in application domains where competing response classes can be defined.