# AgentLens: Revealing The Lucky Pass Problem in SWE-Agent Evaluation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12925 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12925/

## Key facts

- Cited by 15 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [BERTScore: Evaluating Text Generation with BERT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09675/) (2019)
- [Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06261/) (2025)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [WebArena: A Realistic Web Environment for Building Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13854/) (2023)
- [LiveCodeBench: Holistic and Contamination Free Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07974/) (2024)
- [SWE-agent: Agent-Computer Interfaces Enable Automated Software Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15793/) (2024)
- [AgentBench: Evaluating LLMs as Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03688/) (2023)
- [OpenHands: An Open Platform for AI Software Developers as Generalist Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.16741/) (2024)
- [Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08935/) (2023)
- [Solving math word problems with process- and outcome-based feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14275/) (2022)
- [Why Do Multi-Agent LLM Systems Fail?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.13657/) (2025)
- [Terminal-Bench: Benchmarking Agents on Hard, Realistic Tasks in Command Line Interfaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.11868/) (2026)
- [BigCodeBench: Benchmarking Code Generation with Diverse Function Calls and Complex Instructions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15877/) (2024)
- [Agentless: Demystifying LLM-based Software Engineering Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01489/) (2024)
- [AgentBoard: An Analytical Evaluation Board of Multi-turn LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.13178/) (2024)
- [ProcessBench: Identifying Process Errors in Mathematical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.06559/) (2024)
- [AutoCodeRover: Autonomous Program Improvement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.05427/) (2024)
- [SWE-RL: Advancing LLM Reasoning via Reinforcement Learning on Open Software Evolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18449/) (2025)
- [Multi-SWE-bench: A Multilingual Benchmark for Issue Resolving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.02605/) (2025)
- [R2E-Gym: Procedural Environments and Hybrid Verifiers for Scaling Open-Weights SWE Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.07164/) (2025)
- [SWE-rebench: An Automated Pipeline for Task Collection and Decontaminated Evaluation of Software Engineering Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20411/) (2025)
- [SWE-Lancer: Can Frontier LLMs Earn 1 Million from Real-World Freelance Software Engineering?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12115/) (2025)
- [TRAIL: Trace Reasoning and Agentic Issue Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.08638/) (2025)
- [Establishing Best Practices for Building Rigorous Agentic Benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02825/) (2025)
- [Understanding Software Engineering Agents: A Study of Thought-Action-Result Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18824/) (2025)
- [Web-Shepherd: Advancing PRMs for Reinforcing Web Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15277/) (2025)
- [Understanding Code Agent Behaviour: An Empirical Study of Success and Failure Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.00197/) (2025)
- [SWE-RM: Execution-free Feedback For Software Engineering Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.21919/) (2025)
- [Process-Centric Analysis of Agentic Software Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.02393/) (2025)
- [An Exploratory Study of Debugging Episodes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.02162/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Failure as a Process: An Anatomy of CLI Coding Agent Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.09510/) (2026)
- [Fail-Fast, Restart-Smart: Early Failure Prediction and Restart for SWE Agentic Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.03222/) (2026)
- [Building to the Test: Coding Agents Deliver What You Check, Not What You Requested](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.28430/) (2026)
- [Beyond Final Scores: A Systematic Evaluation of Agents for Long-Horizon AI Research and Development](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.13417/) (2026)
- [Execution-First Synthetic Tool-Use Trace Generation for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.29175/) (2026)
- [trajectory-judge: What Outcome-Only LLM Judges Miss on Agent Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.00038/) (2026)
- [Looping Is Not Reliability: State-Bound Evidence and Typed Revision Contracts for Agentic Code Repair](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.24604/) (2026)
- [The Working Set of a Coding Agent: Coherence Debt in Repository-Scale Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.16630/) (2026)
- [Skill Issue: Lessons from Optimizing Repository SKILLs for Coding Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.12742/) (2026)
- [Maintaining Benchmarks Against Increasingly Capable Agents: Detection and Remediation of Unearned Passes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34262/) (2026)
- [Validation Evidence in LLM Repair Agents: How Much of What Passes Actually Tests the Bug?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.28871/) (2026)
- [Coding Agents Have Converged: Why the SWE-bench Leaderboard Can No Longer Order Its Top Entries, and What to Measure Instead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.17394/) (2026)
- [Trajectory-Aware Benchmark Subset Selection for Cost-Efficient Software Engineering Agent Regression Testing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.24928/) (2026)
- [What Did the Agent Actually Do? Evidence-Grounded Oversight for Long-Horizon Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.06406/) (2026)
- [SWE-Critix: Post-Training Generalist Verifiers for Assessing Coding-Agent Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.13356/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Evaluation of software engineering (SWE) agents is dominated by a binary signal: whether the final patch passes the tests. This outcome-only view treats a principled solution and a chaotic trial-and-error process as equivalent. We show that this equivalence is empirically false. We evaluate 2,614 OpenHands trajectories from eight model backends on 60 SWE-bench Verified tasks. Of these, 47 have enough passing trajectories to construct task-level process references, yielding a 1,815-trajectory evaluation subset. Among passing trajectories in this subset, 10.7% exhibit behavior we call a Lucky Pass: regression cycles, blind retries, missing verification, or temporally disordered exploration, implementation, and verification. We introduce AgentLens, a framework for process-level assessment of SWE-agent trajectories, and define AgentLens-Bench, a dataset of 1,815 trajectories annotated with quality scores, waste signals, divergence points, and 47 task-level Prefix Tree Acceptor (PTA) references. AgentLens builds PTA references by merging multiple passing solutions for the same task, and uses a context-sensitive intent labeler to assign actions to Exploration, Implementation, Verification, or Orchestration based on trajectory history rather than tool identity alone. On AgentLens-Bench, the quality score separates passing trajectories into Lucky, Solid, and Ideal tiers and further decomposes Lucky Passes into five recurring mechanisms. Across the eight model backends, Lucky rates range from 0.5% to 23.2%, and some models move by as many as five rank positions when ranked by quality score instead of pass rate. We plan to release the project repository soon, including AgentLens-Bench artifacts, the AgentLens SDK, and the analysis tooling.