# Decision Support for Marketplace Policies under Incomplete Evidence: From Replay to Launch Readiness

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12840 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12840/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Doubly Robust Off-policy Value Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.03722/) (2015)
- [Optimal and Adaptive Off-policy Evaluation in Contextual Bandits](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01205/) (2016)
- [Real-Time Bidding by Reinforcement Learning in Display Advertising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.02490/) (2017)
- [Doubly robust off-policy evaluation with shrinkage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.09623/) (2019)
- [Open Bandit Dataset and Pipeline: Towards Realistic and Reproducible Off-Policy Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.07146/) (2020)
- [Off-Policy Evaluation via Adaptive Weighting with Data from Contextual Bandits](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.02029/) (2021)
- [Experimental Design in Two-Sided Platforms: An Analysis of Bias](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05670/) (2020)
- [Design and Analysis of Switchback Experiments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.00148/) (2020)
- [Interference, Bias, and Variance in Two-Sided Marketplace Experimentation: Guidance for Platforms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.12222/) (2021)
- [Real-Time Bidding Benchmarking with iPinYou Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1407.7073/) (2014)
- [Limiting Bias from Test-Control Interference in Online Marketplace Experiments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.12162/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Support-aware offline policy selection for advertising marketplaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.21736/) (2026)
- [Choosing Online Experiment Designs under Interference in Ads, Recommendations, and Member-Experience Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.25290/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Marketplace platforms routinely evaluate pricing and allocation policies using logged observational data, yet strong offline performance does not imply that a policy is safe to deploy. In real-time bidding (RTB) marketplaces, reserve-price and floor-policy changes affect not only revenue but also fill, advertiser value, budget pacing, and competition across auctions, creating feedback and interference. The central problem is therefore not to estimate whether a policy improves an offline metric, but to determine whether the available evidence justifies direct launch or only further validation. In this regard, we propose a support-aware decision-support system (DSS) that distinguishes promising from actionable evidence. The framework integrates replay, support-aware off-policy evaluation (OPE), conservative lower-bound ranking, multi-sided guardrails, out-of-time validation, sensitivity analysis, and interference-aware validation design into a claim-preserving pipeline that outputs a launch-readiness classification rather than a single performance estimate. Applying the framework to iPinYou-style RTB logs, we identify a margin-gated floor policy as the leading candidate, with a 47.7% replay yield lift, a 45.8% conservative lower-tail lift, and stable out-of-time performance. However, the framework does not recommend direct launch. A decision-rule ablation shows that simplified pipelines select the same policy but incorrectly recommend deployment, leaving key causal assumptions unresolved. In contrast, the proposed DSS selects the same policy but changes the action to online validation, reflecting missing evidence on propensities, bidder response, and interference. Overall, the contribution is a reproducible DSS protocol that prevents decision overclaim under partial identification and converts offline evaluation into an auditable, action-oriented recommendation.