# Predicting Channel Closures in the Lightning Network with Machine Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12759 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12759/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 24 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Temporal Graph Networks for Deep Learning on Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10637/) (2020)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07962/) (2020)
- [Predicting Dynamic Embedding Trajectory in Temporal Interaction Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.01207/) (2019)
- [EvolveGCN: Evolving Graph Convolutional Networks for Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10191/) (2019)
- [Towards Better Dynamic Graph Learning: New Architecture and Unified Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.13047/) (2023)
- [Do We Really Need Complicated Model Architectures For Temporal Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11636/) (2023)
- [Temporal Graph Benchmark for Machine Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01026/) (2023)
- [ROLAND: Graph Learning Framework for Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.07239/) (2022)
- [Discrete-time Temporal Network Embedding via Implicit Hierarchical Learning in Hyperbolic Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03767/) (2021)
- [GC-LSTM: Graph Convolution Embedded LSTM for Dynamic Link Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04206/) (2018)
- [TGB 2.0: A Benchmark for Learning on Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Heterogeneous Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09639/) (2024)
- [Topological Analysis of Bitcoin's Lightning Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.04972/) (2019)
- [Channel Balance Interpolation in the Lightning Network via Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.12087/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking GNNs Using Lightning Network Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07916/) (2024)
- [Bayesian Binary Search](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01771/) (2024)
- [Joint Combinatorial Node Selection and Resource Allocations in the Lightning Network using Attention-based Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.17353/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The Lightning Network (LN) is a second-layer protocol for Bitcoin designed to enable fast and cost-efficient off-chain transactions. Channels in the LN can be closed either by mutual agreement or unilaterally through a forced closure, which locks the involved capital for an extended period and degrades network reliability. In this paper, we study the problem of predicting channel closure types from publicly available gossip data, framing it as a temporal link classification task over the evolving channel graph. We construct a dataset spanning over two years of LN activity and benchmark a range of machine learning approaches, from MLPs to temporal graph neural networks and spectral encodings. Our experiments reveal that the dominant predictive signals are temporal and behavioural, namely how recently each endpoint was active and the per-node history of past closures, while the surrounding network topology provides no additional benefit. We find that a simple MLP operating on edge-level features, node-level event counts, and temporal patterns outperforms all graph-based approaches, and discuss how the inherent privacy of the LN, where critical information such as channel balances and payment flows remains hidden, fundamentally limits the predictability of closures from gossip data alone. We publicly release the dataset and code at https://github.com/AmbossTech/ln-channel-closure-prediction.